Profiting on Preseason Football by Overlay

As a contrarian, I often start by assuming that things are usually the opposite of what they appear to be. It is commonly assumed, for example, that anyone who wagers on a preseason football game is a derelict, an action freak, or a sicko. What can a bettor possibly have to go on? Stats are meaningless; angles are based on extremely small samples; records are meaningless; coaches want to avoid injuries to key players. It all looks like a crapshoot. That's what most people think, which is precisely what drew me to investigate preseason football rigorously more than twenty years ago. If most people think it's a bad (-EV) proposition, well that gives a contrarian like me hope.

If it is true that the bettor has little to go on, well then, how does the linesmaker make a line on these games? What does he have to go on? It is interesting to observe that over the last twenty years, the lines on preseason games have gradually narrowed to the point where one rarely finds a game in which one team is favored by 7 or more points. In fact, the majority of games are lined around the 3. Olympic's early line for Preseason Week One games made only two teams more than a 3 point favorite and the biggest spread was 5 points. If one assumes for the sake of argument that the home field is worth 3 points (in most cases), the lines-maker is saying that the majority of games are toss-ups. Perhaps the lines-maker is as much in the dark as the derelict bettors.

I have made significant profits wagering on preseason football in 17 of the last 20 years. Over the past two years, my record at SSB against widely available lines is 18-10-3 (64%) including 12-6-1 last year my first as a host. My selections in the preseason are based entirely on three angles that I have thoroughly researched. All of these angles have Z-scores above 3.3 and a long record of success in the preseason. I am not inclined to reveal precisely the methods I use but I will here give some hints about basic strategy.

• Divide the preseason into the four weeks (of full schedules). Motivation will differ radically over the course of the four weeks. In week one take a hard look at the weakest teams from last year. The common assumption is that these teams will be out to win in game one so they may be inflated as favorites if they are playing at home. After week one take a good look at which teams played poorly in their last game. The worse the better as far as wagering opportunities. Especially good when a decisive loser plays a decisive winner. Even better when the loser has a new coach. Be careful in Week 3. This is the week most like a regular season game.
• Speaking of new coaches, they are usually coaching the worst teams from the previous year. One of their first goals is to change the team's losing attitude. You do that by winning and by avoiding losing streaks. They also want to win over the fans. Whereas most home dogs are not particularly good plays in the preseason, new coaches as home dogs often are excellent plays (depending on the whole scenario of course, i.e. level of competition). New coaches certainly don't want to look bad the whole preseason.
• Some teams and coaches are patently uninterested in the preseason. Marv Levy is the best known example and during his tenure as coach of Buffalo a lot of professional-level bettors made a small fortune. Parcells is the opposite; he hates to lose and always warrants a close look as a dog. In considering the level of motivation, it is useful to look not only at the persona of the coach but also at the strengths and weaknesses of teams based on the previous season. Which teams had trouble running the ball? Chances are they're going to pound the rock in the preseason. Which teams had trouble stopping the run? They may play their starting front longer. Which teams were the cream on offense and defense the previous season? Do they have anything at all to prove? If not, they may make good go against teams as chalk since they have no real reason to play their starters very long and their whole goal may be to avoid injuries. In the preseason, qualitative judgments take priority over quantitative ones.
• Streaking teams are worth a look as we get closer to the start of the season. Going into the regular season undefeated can give a team a really good feeling. One of my biggest plays last preseason was on Carolina -1 in week 4 against a struggling Steelers team that was having a miserable preseason. Most bettors had the Steelers penciled in as the motivated team especially after Cower said he would play his starters into the third quarter because the Steelers needed a good performance, i.e. a win. The Steelers took a 14-0 lead in the first quarter and seemed likely to run away with it. Off the bench came Jake Delhomme who led Carolina to a 21-14 come from behind win. For those who think the preseason is meaningless, well, they might take a closer look at this game. The 4-0 Panthers went to Superbowl; the 1-3 Steelers had their worst season in years. Oh, by the way, the Panthers lost in the Superbowl to the Patriots. What was their preseason record? 4-0!!!