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52.5%

Posted By: Colin Caster
Date: 15 Jun 03, 3:48 pm

In Response To: I Fail To Get It (Jeff Jones)

Yes Jeff, 52.5% was my figure, which is why you should know that when you get whacked by me it's not the centerpiece of a job interview. I am well aware of the collective firepower of the assembled handicappers. According to DM's records, hosts to date are currently 52.3% over 4895 picks, but when StevieY's NBA gets folded in it will jump to 52.5% or so. A fair estimate is that Zoso will finish the baseball season 5-10 units down, so by the beginning of CFB it may be 52.4% or so.

Unlike others, I am under no illusions about what straight handicapping is capable of. Some defend SSB's 'capping by pointing to the NFL record, but I personally believe that's a red herring. All 4895 picks were made with the expectation that they were profitable, so the aggregate performance across all sports is IMO the best index of success. Anybody want to take even money and bet me that SSB hosts will collectively beat 55% on NFL sides and totals next year?

But it's equally fallacious to trivialize 52.5% across 5000 picks when most everyone else is putting up 50.5% or worse. 9/6 Jacks or Better is negative expectation by itself, but it made Bob Dancer a millionaire, something he'd never have been able to do with 8/5 machines. For you to relegate to a flippant footnote ("sunspots") advantageous use of line shopping, promos, and exotics, which make sports wagering profitable, is not just unfair, it's irresponsible.

I don't object at all to your periodic ego puncturing exercises (including the ones you aim at me -- my 515 picks as an SSB host cost it two tenths of a percentage point). We could probably use more of that. But unless you really are just a crank you need to call both balls *and* strikes.

CC

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Messages In This Thread

Boys, The Site Is Out Of Control -- Jeff Jones -- 15 Jun 03, 11:45 am
Line shopping and sunspots -- Colin Caster -- 15 Jun 03, 1:21 pm
I Fail To Get It -- Jeff Jones -- 15 Jun 03, 1:47 pm
Followup -- Jeff Jones -- 15 Jun 03, 2:10 pm
If you can't make money from SSB, you're right, you're failing to get it (nt) -- Goats -- 15 Jun 03, 2:31 pm
52.5% -- Colin Caster -- 15 Jun 03, 3:48 pm
agree 100% -- Dreamer -- 15 Jun 03, 7:26 pm
OT question -- Ricky -- 19 Jun 03, 2:43 pm
Sorry -- here it is in more detail -- Colin Caster -- 19 Jun 03, 4:34 pm
makes sense, thanks (nt) -- Ricky -- 19 Jun 03, 6:25 pm
Millionaire? -- WillyHoppy -- 21 Jun 03, 10:01 am
it's a little misleading -- Colin Caster -- 21 Jun 03, 10:24 am
CC are you on something? (nt) -- papa joe -- 15 Jun 03, 1:54 pm
Hello, MT (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 15 Jun 03, 2:42 pm
tell ya what Jeff, if ya d/n password protect my ids and -- papa joe -- 15 Jun 03, 1:52 pm
Yes, I think so -- Rusty Starfish -- 15 Jun 03, 5:08 pm

 

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