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and another

Posted By: DOXARAS-4-
Date: 6 Aug 03, 6:48 am

In Response To: First bet of the season! (DOXARAS-4-)

Omonoia -.5 +200 Victor Chandler. Used to be up to +225 in Pinnacle. I took it at +210 (+206 after commission) in betdaq for small money. I went small only because I also played the asian line in Pinnacle.

Listen,I am not in love with the draw, but I thought the line was too good to pass inPinnacle. I am going with a small Omonoia win here, not with the draw that much,but if you take into account that it was pk +109 last night and I wanted to bet it and only waited for the public money and now it is +.25 +103,then hell you have to take the handicap line too.

Note that from now on I will be treating my asian handicap selections as one pick (last year I would break it into 2) and will grade it a loser as long as I lost money on that and winner as long as I won. Again the units won't change as it will still be implied that half unit is bet on one line and half on the other.

Now about the pick. Good luck playing under 40 degrees in Cyprus. Actually Polish guys got lucky as it is very cold for Cyprus standards today (31o'C) but should still be hot for them. And very humid. Playing this time of the year in Cyprus has to be a good advantadge for Omonoia. Then there will be like 15000 people roting for the hime team. What raised a flag for me though was that Wisla only went to Cyprus yesterday afternoon,which left them only one day and a couple of hours to get used to the climate. This shows they underestimate Omonoia. And of course they have a solid reason for that: They are a way better team. However,they also underestimate them because of starting with 5-0 in the first match (where they got lucky scoring 5 with like 7 chances) before giving up 2 and finishing 5-2. Omonoia also get back one of their best players,probably the best for such a match, the German Marco Hamber, who didn't play in the first because of a suspension. A German tourist would still do a difference for a Cypriot team,let alone him. Top it up with the strong defense they are supposed to have (Omonoia) and they have a shot for a small win 1-0 or even 2-0 or something,which would still not harm Wisla (they need a 3-0 to get knocked out,or a 4-1 etc).
It is also kinda BS fading the line moves when a Cypriot team plays. Since I was thinking to take the pk +109 line,I would have no excuse to pass on the +.25 +103 or the +225 -.5 I got in Pin. However the line is now +200 at Victor Chandler and I grade my second wager on the game there.

I hate to root for Omonoia,both because it is the team I dislike in Cyprus and because they generally don't do well -even for their standards- in Europe,but think there is value here. However,if you are the kind of bettor than never has the heart to bet on Cinci Bungles,don't bet it,as the diffeence in quality is really big here.

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Messages In This Thread

First bet of the season! -- DOXARAS-4- -- 5 Aug 03, 6:29 am
The bet is in Pinnacle -- DOXARAS-4- -- 5 Aug 03, 1:25 pm
Which is better -- Sawdust kid -- 6 Aug 03, 3:17 am
Pinnacle by far -- DOXARAS-4- -- 6 Aug 03, 6:09 am
second pick -- DOXARAS-4- -- 6 Aug 03, 6:25 am
wow!!! -- DOXARAS-4- -- 6 Aug 03, 6:52 am
and another -- DOXARAS-4- -- 6 Aug 03, 6:48 am
Results -- DOXARAS-4- -- 6 Aug 03, 11:02 am

 


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