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Agree-data doesn't support this

Posted By: John May
Date: 7 Jan 04, 7:07 am

In Response To: I will tell you what happened to me (DOXARAS-4-)

Usually I don't look at totals enough, so it is hard to have plays on them. It is very often that I feel overs are the way to go in the Premiership myself.

Agree, I bought into the received wisdom about unders in all the books, and also the received wisdom that bettors prefer an exciting game. But, the data does not bear this out. I tested the last 330 games at Ladbrokes with £1 bets and lost 13% overall, which is almost identical to the house take implied by the overround. Its possible some bias may show up in a larger sample, but I tend to doubt it. Note these games were mostly played in England in cold or extremely cold conditions, which has been proven to reduce goals.

Possible mitigating factors: soccer bettors are becoming more sophisticated with the elimination of tax and treble-minimums, and the correctional behaviour of the market may also be coming into play.

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Messages In This Thread

Another pick-Man U vs Palathaniakos -- John May -- 16 Sep 03, 8:10 am
Man U -- SoccerMan -- 16 Sep 03, 9:00 am
Forgive me... -- John May -- 16 Sep 03, 9:41 am
manU -- SoccerMan -- 17 Sep 03, 4:37 am
I certainly won't advocate betting on a hot fav -- DOXARAS-4- -- 16 Sep 03, 10:38 am
Please! England, Greece - Nough said (nt) -- Sean -- 16 Sep 03, 7:27 pm
England,Serbia -Nough said. Newcastle 0 Partizan 1, nuff said! (nt) -- DOXARAS-4- -- 16 Sep 03, 10:10 pm
I knew I'd catch some grief for my comment! -- Sean -- 30 Dec 03, 2:55 pm
Sorry about that -- DOXARAS-4- -- 3 Jan 04, 2:50 pm
I don't have soccer subsets -- Sean -- 4 Jan 04, 11:01 am
Knowing the stats like that -- misfitcounter -- 4 Jan 04, 12:34 pm
avg is 2.6 goals -- Stingray -- 4 Jan 04, 12:56 pm
Number is over 50% -- John May -- 7 Jan 04, 7:09 am
I will tell you what happened to me -- DOXARAS-4- -- 5 Jan 04, 1:04 am
Agree-data doesn't support this -- John May -- 7 Jan 04, 7:07 am
Sean where did you get this info -- Stingray -- 29 Jan 04, 1:48 pm
lol John it is Panathinaikos but -- DOXARAS-4- -- 18 Sep 03, 1:33 am

 


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