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I will tell you what happened to me

Posted By: DOXARAS-4-
Date: 5 Jan 04, 1:04 am

In Response To: I don't have soccer subsets (Sean)

this year I have found 3-4 over plays in the Premiership and only 1-2 unders if I can recall correctly. Usually I don't look at totals enough, so it is hard to have plays on them. It is very often that I feel overs are the way to go in the Premiership myself. But then I have to slap myself and freeze this thought of mine until I find solid reasoning. Kind of Fez/SW influence: Why would squares like the unders, aren't they supposed to like overs? Soccer data, especially on totals, is hard to analyze because there is a ML attached to over/under, they aren't -110 or so. Also because -asian handicap books aside- there aren't many big books that have stayed long enough in the industry and have offered soccer totals/handicaps at reasonable (like 20 cent) vig. This problem is huge because with 50-cent lines or so, sharp books (and there are such in soccer too) can share the vig in a very uneven way: -125 both sides (for example) for a 54% over -46%% under match. Or even for 55-45. That way they will enjoy action (as squares will be finding it a 'steal') that otherwise they wouldn't and they will be geting a smaller piece of a much bigger pie. At the same time they are welcoming square clientelle and push away sharps that will eventually be fed up with searching for diamonds in the mud.

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Messages In This Thread

Another pick-Man U vs Palathaniakos -- John May -- 16 Sep 03, 8:10 am
Man U -- SoccerMan -- 16 Sep 03, 9:00 am
Forgive me... -- John May -- 16 Sep 03, 9:41 am
manU -- SoccerMan -- 17 Sep 03, 4:37 am
I certainly won't advocate betting on a hot fav -- DOXARAS-4- -- 16 Sep 03, 10:38 am
Please! England, Greece - Nough said (nt) -- Sean -- 16 Sep 03, 7:27 pm
England,Serbia -Nough said. Newcastle 0 Partizan 1, nuff said! (nt) -- DOXARAS-4- -- 16 Sep 03, 10:10 pm
I knew I'd catch some grief for my comment! -- Sean -- 30 Dec 03, 2:55 pm
Sorry about that -- DOXARAS-4- -- 3 Jan 04, 2:50 pm
I don't have soccer subsets -- Sean -- 4 Jan 04, 11:01 am
Knowing the stats like that -- misfitcounter -- 4 Jan 04, 12:34 pm
avg is 2.6 goals -- Stingray -- 4 Jan 04, 12:56 pm
Number is over 50% -- John May -- 7 Jan 04, 7:09 am
I will tell you what happened to me -- DOXARAS-4- -- 5 Jan 04, 1:04 am
Agree-data doesn't support this -- John May -- 7 Jan 04, 7:07 am
Sean where did you get this info -- Stingray -- 29 Jan 04, 1:48 pm
lol John it is Panathinaikos but -- DOXARAS-4- -- 18 Sep 03, 1:33 am

 


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