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First bet of the season!

Posted By: DOXARAS-4-
Date: 5 Aug 03, 6:29 am

Hope everyone enjoys a good year.
I am stealing a pick of Bozzz and this is of course Partizan. Only I won't go with the +.25 +107 line. You either like the draw or not. If not,why wouldn't I go with the +250 for the away win (which I like too)? It is the best out there anyway.

I will go with +.5 -133. As you know I hate to fade Williamhill, but have to do that here: the problem is that Djurgardens can't be told to be public team and definitely the Serbs are the team with the biggest name in Europe. However, I am not quite sure whether the betting following of the Swedes is that much smaller than the one for Partizan. Anyway, you know I am of the Fez school and that makes me suspicious about the wager,but only that. Actualy one more thing when you look at the 'fundamentals': Scandinavians play during the summer and are much more ready for such matches. This has lead them to many surprises and oftentimes they qualify based on this strong advantadge they have and the fact that they scertainly do play defense (which rules i European Cups). So you might have seen Helsingborg knocking Inter out,Halmstadts knocking out Chelsea I think, Aik Solna knocking out a much better Aek Athens 'und so weiter'. Willihill and Pinnacle seem t have put much weight on this and I rarely question them.
However, they seem to miss a thing or two. One thing is that Partizan absolutely dominated the first match and were very unlucky not to win and perhaps even big. In all honesty I doubt they are missing this fact that much. The thing they seem to be missing more is that 2 sets of draws are cool for the 2 teams. For these 2 defense-oriented teams actually. A 2-2 draw (if the match ever gets there) is giving the qualification to Partizan,so if it gets there they won't let it slip so eaily. But mainly a 0-0 draw is giving the ticket to the Swedes,they wouldn't let it slip so easly either. I can easily see Djurgardens (which is a fine team for their standards) score in the 'break', but they won't be attacking anyway and Partizan is not that bad a team nor lack the Serbs the sophistication for the game. So,I give the draw a decent chance. And f course I also give a decent chance to the away win. I think 60% for both isn't outrageous.I would say possibly it is somewhat more (have it about 62% but cold be 58-62%,much uncertainty for teams you don't get to see often).

Have a look at the under too if you like,must be solid at -101.

So 1 unit on the 1.75 (-133) of Partizan +.5. YTD of course 0-0-0.

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Messages In This Thread

First bet of the season! -- DOXARAS-4- -- 5 Aug 03, 6:29 am
The bet is in Pinnacle -- DOXARAS-4- -- 5 Aug 03, 1:25 pm
Which is better -- Sawdust kid -- 6 Aug 03, 3:17 am
Pinnacle by far -- DOXARAS-4- -- 6 Aug 03, 6:09 am
second pick -- DOXARAS-4- -- 6 Aug 03, 6:25 am
wow!!! -- DOXARAS-4- -- 6 Aug 03, 6:52 am
and another -- DOXARAS-4- -- 6 Aug 03, 6:48 am
Results -- DOXARAS-4- -- 6 Aug 03, 11:02 am

 


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