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Soccer Forum

Wales-Russia

Posted By: DOXARAS-4-
Date: 17 Nov 03, 6:51 am

In Response To: 38-44-5 +15.96 units (DOXARAS-4-)

It is one of those times you are waiting for a line to come out for you to bet it but when it comes out you are stunned, shake the oddsmaker hand and leave the sportsbook.

I thought we could get a bad line there for Russia and win some money, but things look tougher than I thought. They did watch the first match it seems, and the line for Russia to qualify is -125. At -110 I would probably take it but -125 seems about right. A line that looks better is +125 ML for Russia. Compared to the -125 'to qualify' line you just push at 1-1,2-2,3-3 etc where you would be winning, you also push at 0-0 where you could either win or lose with the other bet (depending on what happens in ET). Of course you win more if Russia wins. So, on deeper thought it just doesn't seem the oddsmaker screw it in that one either. Lines are about right to me.

In case somebody wanted to hedge +500 Scotland to qualify, don't do it in Canbet! -220 for Holland is horrible -EV. I think the +175 for Scotland is slight value (at least). Of course no way to pick it again. Dutch are still clear faves to qualify but even at 63-37 (percent) the +175 line is slight value. I would put it closer to 40%,probably 38-39%,who knows?

Generally I haven't found good value nowhere yet.

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Messages In This Thread

38-44-5 +15.96 units -- DOXARAS-4- -- 15 Nov 03, 5:33 am
correction -- DOXARAS-4- -- 15 Nov 03, 5:35 am
Again, nice! -- Nakor -- 15 Nov 03, 10:25 am
Good start for the playoffs Dox (nt) -- Uk nfl fan -- 15 Nov 03, 10:26 am
ty both guys (nt) -- DOXARAS-4- -- 15 Nov 03, 12:13 pm
Surprisingly good results -- DOXARAS-4- -- 15 Nov 03, 12:13 pm
Wales-Russia -- DOXARAS-4- -- 17 Nov 03, 6:51 am

 


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