Soccer Forum

I don't

Posted By: DOXARAS-4-
Date: 10 Nov 03, 5:29 pm

In Response To: Nice job (Nakor)

I would never have the guts to bet on a 0-3 with these 2 teams. Unless it were like +15000 and I had happened to spot it somewhere. Again it wouldbe like $5 bet or $10 max. If offered great odds I would go for the 0-1, again I wouldn't bother looking at the odds, they are never close to value.

If you only had these 2 I am happy for you. If I were you reading my posts, I would perhaps do the same:)
The rationale is that some bets are clearly stronger than others in my mind. Leicester and Boro +.5 were 2 bets that I was predetermined to look at their odds and would take them unless they posted something strange. Not Boro -.5 though. Tottenham, I didn't like that much because they are so soft and Arse gets always so much help (happened again), Ksanthi-Aigalew was awesome but for one factor: Everybody and their brother here in Greece liked the draw.

Now regarding Leicester under, I think it was strong too, but only as strong as a total can be, it is rare that they are off too much. I mean you can say 'how will there be score in this one?' but that under will be -150 or so. OTOH with sides you feel more confident to follow somebody else's picks if you share the same or similar view: I am fading Villa in general and am backing Boro in general this year, so with Villa off a draw at -supposedly- in form Newcastle United, and with them undefeated at home, one could easier be convinved there is value in that one.

Since I am not blindly following the pros in hosted pages for NFL etc, I cannot at all blame anybody for cherry-picking my picks. I would do the same. It is only that if I can't persuade myself out of betting a team (because 'there must be value there') I have to post them here too. If anybody finds a way to do better than me on my picks, more power to him and please inform me if you think there is a pattern developing for that.

Messages In This Thread

35-41-5 +8.94 units -- DOXARAS-4- -- 6 Nov 03, 6:24 pm

2 more -- DOXARAS-4- -- 6 Nov 03, 6:58 pm

Ksanthi-Aigalew -- DOXARAS-4- -- 7 Nov 03, 7:33 am

add 2 more -- DOXARAS-4- -- 8 Nov 03, 5:23 am

ok it is +625 -- DOXARAS-4- -- 8 Nov 03, 2:54 pm

Nice job -- Nakor -- 10 Nov 03, 4:54 pm

I don't -- DOXARAS-4- -- 10 Nov 03, 5:29 pm

Overall very good results -- DOXARAS-4- -- 9 Nov 03, 9:09 am

Blackburn-Everton -- DOXARAS-4- -- 10 Nov 03, 9:12 am

DOX,know much about spreadbetting -- Stingray -- 10 Nov 03, 9:52 am

I would be lying -- DOXARAS-4- -- 10 Nov 03, 1:17 pm

your honesty is refreshing.. -- Stingray -- 10 Nov 03, 1:59 pm

Spread betting -- John May -- 12 Nov 03, 7:27 am

Plus 3rd problem -- Uk nfl fan -- 12 Nov 03, 7:43 am

yes the vig is huge alright.. -- Stingray -- 13 Nov 03, 9:56 am

thanks alot for that -- DOXARAS-4- -- 12 Nov 03, 8:01 am

Volatility can help with the vig -- John May -- 14 Nov 03, 4:47 am

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