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hmmm

Posted By: DOXARAS-4-
Date: 1 Nov 03, 6:19 am

In Response To: Aarrggghhh! They've moved (Stingray)

I don't know why they bounce it, I guess cause of action?
Well you lost some on under and won some on +.5, now that I see your post I see +.5 -102 and under +104. Yep, to me both are still very betable, I am just kinda of the Fez school here which says 'Don't bet on a line that has already moved'. The rationale is that the bookmakers are less likely to have been that mistaken in the first place so all value might have been absorbed. I would add that since we will all have bad bets too (bets that were -EV when we made them,only we couldn'tsee it), it is way difficult to make up for that -EV by betting on lines that have already moved. Purely theoretically speaking I was like 4.5% EV on each soccer pick last year and like 10% so far in this one, so you might want to check from there how much you can afford 'losing' to my line. I would say that this must be a bad method though. I don't expect to win 5% on each bet going forward,let alone 10%.

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Messages In This Thread

30-37-4 +7.57 units -- DOXARAS-4- -- 31 Oct 03, 4:47 am
W/e picks -- Uk nfl fan -- 31 Oct 03, 9:13 am
Now 4.8 at sporting options (nt) -- Stingray -- 31 Oct 03, 9:42 am
It has moved already -- Stingray -- 31 Oct 03, 9:14 am
Can't be true -- DOXARAS-4- -- 31 Oct 03, 8:00 pm
well my post is.. -- Stingray -- 1 Nov 03, 4:29 am
I will tell you what -- DOXARAS-4- -- 1 Nov 03, 6:43 am
Sorry. Posted under the wrong thread! (nt) -- Uk nfl fan -- 31 Oct 03, 9:14 am
no probs,besides -- DOXARAS-4- -- 31 Oct 03, 7:55 pm
Toffees -- DOXARAS-4- -- 31 Oct 03, 8:55 pm
Aarrggghhh! They've moved -- Stingray -- 1 Nov 03, 4:45 am
hmmm -- DOXARAS-4- -- 1 Nov 03, 6:19 am
The truth... -- Buffmeister -- 1 Nov 03, 10:35 am
Not sure about that -- DOXARAS-4- -- 1 Nov 03, 2:03 pm
? 2 Dox -- Buffmeister -- 1 Nov 03, 2:38 pm
I dont understand why Pin -- Stingray -- 2 Nov 03, 7:06 am
Yep -- DOXARAS-4- -- 2 Nov 03, 4:52 pm
Just moved 10 cents -- Buffmeister -- 2 Nov 03, 6:56 pm
ok you might be right then -- DOXARAS-4- -- 2 Nov 03, 7:27 pm
Hotspurs (square pick) -- DOXARAS-4- -- 1 Nov 03, 7:05 am
results -- DOXARAS-4- -- 1 Nov 03, 2:08 pm

 


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