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another one

Posted By: DOXARAS-4-
Date: 16 Oct 03, 10:03 pm

In Response To: 24-30-2 +5.86 units (DOXARAS-4-)

I am going small with the draw for Arsenal-Chelsea +250 at canbet. I am not in love with it but can se it being 30%. Actually the lowest I culd come up with is 28%,but 28% isn't +EV (-2%). I'd like to think it is better than that. I put it at about 29-31%, but it troubles me bigtime that this is the week's biggest match. How could books screw it for the biggest match of the week? Besides we all know these are good defenses (probably I won't bother watching this match at all...) and this is a derby, so it just looks toooo easy. There has to be a catch. I also dislike that there is no strong public bias either side. Public misses that Arsenal are really worse than they think, but they also miss what a bad spot for Chelsea is: They aren't like the surprise team that plays good ball but 'aren't proven', they are the 'feared' Russian Army that 'try to buy the title'. They are hated and this is why everybody will be ready to beat them bad in Arsenal. Chelsea are the better team IMO. Not by far though. And the spot favours the Arse. So the odds are right about whom is more likely to win it. And how much more likely (giving still Chelsea a good chance). I just hope they aren't accurate (or this Canbet line is a bit soft) on the likelihood of a draw.
1) Teams are actually bigtime defense-oriented (yeah, I know, try to explain to a square why the Arse are defense-oriented).
2) The tougher of the 2 defenses is the one of the dog (Chelsea).
3) Derby (favouring draws).
4) Table position of teams allows for a draw. It won't be a bad result for either team. Especially if Chelsea start better and are better throughout most of it, the chances of both liking the draw increase. Of course,the fact that both could make do with a draw overlaps with (3) too.

Although really uncommon for any Premier team to have 2 cosecutive 0-0s, it can end 0-0 easily.

I hope and think all the above give -at least a small- edge to the +250 draw.

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Messages In This Thread

24-30-2 +5.86 units -- DOXARAS-4- -- 14 Oct 03, 10:04 am
PAOK price has shortened -- Stingray -- 15 Oct 03, 5:48 am
can you update me on where the line went before gametime? -- DOXARAS-4- -- 15 Oct 03, 7:46 pm
line move -- Stingray -- 16 Oct 03, 2:25 am
thanks alot (nt) -- DOXARAS-4- -- 16 Oct 03, 6:17 pm
Paok won 0-3! -- DOXARAS-4- -- 15 Oct 03, 8:03 pm
weekend picks -- DOXARAS-4- -- 16 Oct 03, 9:28 pm
another one -- DOXARAS-4- -- 16 Oct 03, 10:03 pm
Mixed results -- DOXARAS-4- -- 20 Oct 03, 1:28 am
On the upside -- DOXARAS-4- -- 20 Oct 03, 1:32 am
also -- DOXARAS-4- -- 20 Oct 03, 2:49 am
pick -- DOXARAS-4- -- 21 Oct 03, 11:39 am
another -- DOXARAS-4- -- 21 Oct 03, 11:40 am
Final results after late picks -- DOXARAS-4- -- 21 Oct 03, 1:55 pm

 


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