Soccer Forum

A little background info for those that are interested.

Posted By: Uk nfl fan
Date: 29 Sep 03, 4:42 am

In Response To: Read this (DOXARAS-4-)

Firstly, I am not a pro. I like to think that my methods are professional and I do devote a lot of time researching my bets, however I do have a full time job. Luckily my job is in the betting industry so I have basic privelages that arent open to a lot of people - Sports channels are on in the office all day so I can always catch repeats of games that I didnt see first time around, as welll as getting breaking news etc. The main bonus of my work though is I am only needed for approximately half of my working day. Therefore I get plenty of time to research my bets.

My betting units are not partifcularly big. For unofficial picks I usually bet £60 ($99) and for official picks that doubles to £120. Last Calender year, I won £9,500 - although that included a very good soccer world cup. It also includes in-running bets that I cannot possibly post here. The year before I won £4000. That was the first year I started recording my bets. My bets up until last year were £30 flat bets - apart from the american football season when i started to bet heavier.

This year I am winning £2500 - which is a little disappointing considering I have increased my stakes. Most of those winnings came on ante-post soccer.
Ante-post (Futures) soccer is my favourite part of the betting year. Whilst taking on board the arguments about tying up the bankroll, I do believe it offers unrivalled opportunities to make money. I usually increase my stakes at that time of year. I currently have £3500 tied up which will obviously have quite a big effect on my yearly profit/loss. As you can see that would normally equate to over 58 'unofficial' points. I intend to do an update on my futures bets after the the midweek games are we as roughly 20% of the way through the season.

Regarding my methods, the basis is to start out with 'ranking' tables. These are very subjective assessments of each team by me at the start of the season. For each game I use the tables to start with, then adjust the lines for Home advantage, form and team news. The tables carry the most weighting. Form carries some weighting - but not as much as it seems to for bookmakers and other punters. Teams news rarely affects my bets and I am often quite happy to side with teams who are missing a few players.
I am generally not very quick to adjust my tables. Sometimes, obviously, I am wrong. Barnsley are better than I rated them for one example. But often, IMO, punters read too much into temporary form. As in other sports, 1 or 2 incidents in a game are often the difference between winning and losing. One of the teams I like in Div2 are Colchester. They lost their first three league games and sat bottom of the table. They have since won 5 and drawn 2 of their last seven. When they were bottom were they the worst team in the league? undoubtably not. Are they now the best team? Of course not. There arent many teams each year who massively under or over perform during the course of an entire season. They all have peaks and troughs. Although the majority of teams that I bet are underdogs, you will find that they are not the worst team in the league against the best and I am hoping for a miracle. They are generally two evenly matched teams where the odds are skewed using weak reasoning - temporary form, player x is missing etc etc. Yes the bookmakers are right to price them up like that as almost all bettors will back the 'hot' team - but I'll take the odds.

Having said all that, I am not advising anyone to follow my selections. I believe them to be fully researched and i can guarantee that I bet on every selection that I post. However, none of you know me and all my claims should at first be taken with a pinch of salt. Although I read other peoples posts there are very few that I bet.

I will try to post my picks on a friday morning so as not to lose out to line moves. I generally dont like getting involved in writing long posts as I prefer to use my time to reasearch and any real spare time I have at the weekend - I owe to my wife.

If anyone followed me on Saturday, I aplogise. To anyone who follows me in the future, I wish you good luck. Thanks Dox for you vote of confidence (I hope that doesnt mean im going to get sacked soon!) but only time will tell how we get on this season.

Messages In This Thread

DOX what are the Magpies... -- Stingray -- 24 Sep 03, 5:23 am

How would you have priced it up if it had taken place on the first day of.. -- Uk nfl fan -- 24 Sep 03, 11:39 pm

I think at the start.. -- Stingray -- 25 Sep 03, 6:25 am

If that is your reasoning for backing Newcastle, why not -- Uk nfl fan -- 26 Sep 03, 2:21 pm

Interesting...but... -- John May -- 26 Sep 03, 2:37 pm

Its all about grading the relative strengths of the teams. -- Uk nfl fan -- 27 Sep 03, 4:46 am

port vale- wycombe -- SoccerMan -- 27 Sep 03, 9:44 am

Read this -- DOXARAS-4- -- 27 Sep 03, 5:13 pm

A little background info for those that are interested. -- Uk nfl fan -- 29 Sep 03, 4:42 am

Agree with your reasoning (nt) -- John May -- 28 Sep 03, 9:34 am

Reply -- DOXARAS-4- -- 26 Sep 03, 4:54 am

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