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Are these promos Pos EV?

Posted By: Stingray
Date: 27 Sep 03, 1:52 pm

At Sporting odds they offer a 1st goal scorer bet if the scorer fails to score the 1st but scores at any time during the game the bet is refuned.
tomorrow Man city play Spurs.
I took anelka to score the 1st at 4/1.this is the way i see it.
Anelka chance of scoring 1st 15% X 100 = +15X4=60
Chance of scoring not 1st but during game = 30%X- =0
Chance of not scoring =55% X 0= -55

so a profit of 5$ for every 100$ bet.
Anelka has scored consistently for Man U so far this season but the SD in a bet like this is very wide but i think it is offset by the chance of a refund.

you wonder why they would offr a promo like this,It seems good but when you think about it,sportingOdds are the only bookies that dont offer each way on 8-11 horse races with odds on favoutites.

so i am thinking are they sucking me in here?

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Messages In This Thread

Are these promos Pos EV? -- Stingray -- 27 Sep 03, 1:52 pm
my impression is... -- SoccerMan -- 27 Sep 03, 10:40 pm
I also looked at the same promo but didnt come to any conclusion. -- Uk nfl fan -- 29 Sep 03, 3:12 am
Hard to know ... -- Stingray -- 29 Sep 03, 6:59 am
I doubt the promo is exploitable... -- John May -- 29 Sep 03, 1:06 pm

 


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