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Its all about grading the relative strengths of the teams.

Posted By: Uk nfl fan
Date: 27 Sep 03, 4:46 am

In Response To: Interesting...but... (John May)

What I'm suggesting, rightly or wrongly, is that imo these teams are of relatively equal strength. Port Vale are in form, Wycombe are not. I would expect both teams to pick up roughly the same amount of points over the rest of the season. By making the lines at (on average) -175 (PV), +250 (Draw) & +450 (Wycombe) the bookmakers are suggesting that Port Vale are promotion candidates and Wycombe will be relegated. I do not believe this to be true. Only time will tell but with less than 20% of the season played I think it is too early to make such wild predictions.

By the same token I believe Reading to be a little better than Sunderland. Home advantage cancels that out and I would make Sunderland very marginal favourites. That is why, imo, +275 is too big for Reading. I made a case at the start of the season for placing Sunderland in the 2nd quarter of the table. They have had 4 good wins (all against teams in the bottom thirs of the table) and come up short against some of the better teams. Reading, in theory, is the best team they have played to date and I believe there is a better than 27% chance that Reading will come away with all three points.

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Messages In This Thread

DOX what are the Magpies... -- Stingray -- 24 Sep 03, 5:23 am
How would you have priced it up if it had taken place on the first day of.. -- Uk nfl fan -- 24 Sep 03, 11:39 pm
I think at the start.. -- Stingray -- 25 Sep 03, 6:25 am
If that is your reasoning for backing Newcastle, why not -- Uk nfl fan -- 26 Sep 03, 2:21 pm
Interesting...but... -- John May -- 26 Sep 03, 2:37 pm
Its all about grading the relative strengths of the teams. -- Uk nfl fan -- 27 Sep 03, 4:46 am
port vale- wycombe -- SoccerMan -- 27 Sep 03, 9:44 am
Read this -- DOXARAS-4- -- 27 Sep 03, 5:13 pm
A little background info for those that are interested. -- Uk nfl fan -- 29 Sep 03, 4:42 am
Agree with your reasoning (nt) -- John May -- 28 Sep 03, 9:34 am
Reply -- DOXARAS-4- -- 26 Sep 03, 4:54 am

 


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