Soccer Forum

15-22-1 -0.94 units

Posted By: DOXARAS-4-
Date: 19 Sep 03, 10:34 am

Greek totals from Pinnacle:
Paok-Proodeftiki under 2.75 1.91
Aek-Pao over 2.5 +102
Aris-Ksanthi under -135 (this one was 133 but I couldn't post it early)

Reasoning: First let me explain for Aek-Pao which is only my 5th over in Greece. Being an over it is far more likely to be the worst of these selections. However, Pao this year is projected to cause some overs. They desroyed their awesome defense in the efort to create an attacking team. They have the weapons to score though on a bad defense like Aek's. Aek on the other hand knows how to attack and again is bad defensively. So we have one very good attack for Aek and a better than usual for Pao and a bad defense for Aek and much worse than usual for Pao. The catch is Bayevic is a chicken and wil put his teams playing ridiculously defensively when up in such big matches. However, he rarely succeeds with this behaviour as he doesn't cater to have proper defenders and defensive systems to hold this results. An early goal from pao would be sweet for us as I think then Aek would be unstoppable. generally, I can only fear the 1-1 in this match, I fear it alot but if I don't play the +102 over here, then I should be betting every match these teams play in the championship under. Other than Iraklis I doubt there is a team in Greece that can be part of biggest scores. Also, it is still early in the championship and Pao is 2 points up,setting the pace. That for it is less important than average (not much less, these teams and OSFP are the only challengers each year so their derbies can only rarely be unimportant), so this should lead to fewer ridiculous 'defensive' orders from Bayevic (Aek's coach), which are actually the only thing I can see destroying this bet for us. I will be pessimistic and only call it a 53-55% bet, but it should be at least around there.

Paok-Proo: The number is simply too high. Giving me something back if 3 goals are scored is big. Paok was unbelievably lucky to escape with 1-1 midweek from Aigalew in a Cup fixture, it should be like 8-0 everybody said. Even them. Now they face a very defensive-oriented team, however bad. I fear a letdown from proo after their 1-0 win against OSFP and I sure don't like that Paok has killed 2 unders for me already. However, i think at least one was really unlucky. These two teams are bad (of course Paok is better, but bad for their name and measures in general) and when betting in such matches you have to know such teams can provide some backdoor over covers that hurt (like in Akratitos). However, for a team with the size and name of Paok -and in general- it is better than usual for the under if both teams are bad. If this was not Paok but Aigalew(who right now are a much better team than Paok) the line would be 2.5 and robably -120 for the under. So I must take this gift 2.75 line.

Aris-Xanthi again two teams worse than usual. The frightening thing here is that Xanthi is so much worse than their usual so far in the cahmpionship. And also that they are nowhere near that defensive giant that you could not score against. Chalkidona (lol) scored twice. However, both teams play ugly football and can't score match. And Ksanthi has an incredible tradition in Aris' ground (Charilaou). Had Aris been a bit better I would say 'this year they pay them back with a big win trying to humiliate them till last minute', but they are bad themselves. I would take last year's Ksanthi for the under much more pleasantly and this one could be borderline and backdoor over covers (in a agme with 4 chances a 2-2 or 2-1 or something) are in place, but still given the quality of the two teams and the time they let football be played it should be slight +EV for under at -135 still.

Messages In This Thread

15-22-1 -0.94 units -- DOXARAS-4- -- 19 Sep 03, 10:34 am

Results -- DOXARAS-4- -- 21 Sep 03, 9:49 pm

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