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Posted By: DOXARAS-4-
Date: 17 Sep 03, 8:28 am

In Response To: 12-19 +.46 units (DOXARAS-4-)

Olimpiakos +1 goal +111 in pInnacle and Sociedad-OSFP draw +300.

Greece,Spain nuff said:)))
I am just messing with Sean, cause Greece beat Spain last time in Spain and they will have to play playoffs to qualify for Euro 2004, whilst we go directly (if we beat N.Ireland at home).

Seriously though, Olimpiakos is the worst team in European competitions. Their CL away record is the worst there is, you just won't find one that is nowhere near as bad. No other team is 7 straight years in CL groups and yet to win an away CL match!!! However that, it is like betting on 'magic' if you try and take this tradition too seriously, because based on that you should take them to lose no matter what. And here they have 3 thingsworking for them. a) The most serious factor: First CL match for Sociedad, such teams (first cl match) underperform BIIIIIIIGTIME. That being said OSFP is so bad in European matches that this might still not be enough. This trend assumes that the teams that have been there,done it have the experience which translates into some 'wisdom' too. Hard to find wisdom in the silliest team in Europe (OSFP). However, I am reluctant to fade such a strong trend. b) For all their sins, they have a generally good defense or indeed some (2 perhaps) good defenders. On the other hand their attack (after plenty injuries too) is AWFUL. 3) The set before the match: A decisive factor for OSFP's failure in Europe is the fact that they set themselves for failure every time out. Pao use the media (that they care to control) effectively to present every opponent as a huge one, every little point away as a huge 'win for Greek football' etc. They don't. They (OSFP) have this ridiculous attitude that they are a big club (for Europe's standards too,lol) and therefore they must attack, they can't play defensive football etc. This is the fundamental reason for their failure, even with much better defenders they can't play as much defense as Pao. If they do, their own media and fans will dub them cowards and even ask for people (managers) to leave etc. Talking about stupidity and lack of any soccer knowledge. The opposite is true for Pao. Also if Pao has worked yet another miracle in Europe, they feel compelled to better on that immediately (thus try and win). This is where the good thins start: Pao got thrashed yesterday and a least now they don't have much to lose, the media won't be all over them but on Pao. Besides, their horrible results away in Europe have caused SOME humbleness. Still it is unnatural how LITTLE humbleness it has caused, with a normal team you would have expected miracles to happen out of the added commitment this humbleness would cause. They are not a normal team but the exception to the rule. However, they are more humble than their average now, which can only help.

Now to be honest, I can't back up the truck on OSFP in CL even if getting +30000, but this must be a value bet. I guess more value should be on the +300 draw line, but the +1 +111 can't be that bad either, because however their good defense, their attack is non-exostent, so the 1-0 should be very likely.

Messages In This Thread

12-19 +.46 units -- DOXARAS-4- -- 16 Sep 03, 10:45 am

1 'under' -- DOXARAS-4- -- 16 Sep 03, 11:14 am

slaughtered again -- DOXARAS-4- -- 16 Sep 03, 4:57 pm

Sparta -- SoccerMan -- 17 Sep 03, 4:46 am

More losers -- DOXARAS-4- -- 16 Sep 03, 10:07 pm

pick from pinnacle (nt) -- DOXARAS-4- -- 16 Sep 03, 10:07 pm

another unit -- DOXARAS-4- -- 17 Sep 03, 8:42 am

and more -- DOXARAS-4- -- 17 Sep 03, 8:28 am

last for today -- DOXARAS-4- -- 17 Sep 03, 10:06 am

more results -- DOXARAS-4- -- 18 Sep 03, 1:29 am

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