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Another pick-Man U vs Palathaniakos

Posted By: John May
Date: 16 Sep 03, 8:10 am

A favourite for a change. Take Man U at Paddypower at 1.30. As we know (see discussion on general forum) average prices of 1.25 (1/26 in this case) have no vig, so even a small deviation leads to profit. Man U field full-strenth teams and generally play out of their skins in CL matches, so the motivational and competitiveness factors which marr Man U's occassional losses don't apply here.

Moreover, Paddypower are doing cashback on 0-0 draws. These cashback promos are rather like surrender at blackjack for a card counter, they do not add much in terms of expectation (effectively making the price 1.325 instead of 1.3) but have hidden benefits in terms of reducing risk.
This wager comfortably meets May's Profit and Time Criterion (MPTI, catchy eh?) which is to prefer wagers which yield a profit 83% of the time (one standard deviation) after 100 wagers.

You need to bet aggressively to make the most of this type of bet of low-return low-risk bet, I'm plunking down 2% of my bank on this, which is probably too conservative.

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Messages In This Thread

Another pick-Man U vs Palathaniakos -- John May -- 16 Sep 03, 8:10 am
Man U -- SoccerMan -- 16 Sep 03, 9:00 am
Forgive me... -- John May -- 16 Sep 03, 9:41 am
manU -- SoccerMan -- 17 Sep 03, 4:37 am
I certainly won't advocate betting on a hot fav -- DOXARAS-4- -- 16 Sep 03, 10:38 am
Please! England, Greece - Nough said (nt) -- Sean -- 16 Sep 03, 7:27 pm
England,Serbia -Nough said. Newcastle 0 Partizan 1, nuff said! (nt) -- DOXARAS-4- -- 16 Sep 03, 10:10 pm
I knew I'd catch some grief for my comment! -- Sean -- 30 Dec 03, 2:55 pm
Sorry about that -- DOXARAS-4- -- 3 Jan 04, 2:50 pm
I don't have soccer subsets -- Sean -- 4 Jan 04, 11:01 am
Knowing the stats like that -- misfitcounter -- 4 Jan 04, 12:34 pm
avg is 2.6 goals -- Stingray -- 4 Jan 04, 12:56 pm
Number is over 50% -- John May -- 7 Jan 04, 7:09 am
I will tell you what happened to me -- DOXARAS-4- -- 5 Jan 04, 1:04 am
Agree-data doesn't support this -- John May -- 7 Jan 04, 7:07 am
Sean where did you get this info -- Stingray -- 29 Jan 04, 1:48 pm
lol John it is Panathinaikos but -- DOXARAS-4- -- 18 Sep 03, 1:33 am

 


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