Soccer Forum

2-7, -5.73 units

Posted By: DOXARAS-4-
Date: 22 Aug 03, 2:10 am

Well they are correlated but what can you do.
Greek League.
Paok to beat OSFP +395 Expekt
Paok +1.0 goal (this means +.5 though in expekt,watch out) +110
Paok to be winning from first half (paok HT/FT) +825

Too much weight put on the fact that the team will miss their fans. Paok seem horrible at the time but that makes them a good bet! Anastasiadis,their coach, might go in and play if they need that. I rate the draw alot, +110 for the handicap line is a steal as OSFP will be content with a draw (since others will play in Paok's home with supporters in). Tradition and other things point to OSFP. Actualy everything, but their injuries. Paok has lost very important players but this match will mean alot to them. Oftentimes Poak had the chance to beat them and wouldn't because their own supporters did something silly and interrupt the match, perhaps it is better without them. Obviously here I am betting the money on the +1 line (which is +.5) and the other bets are much smaller, but consistent with last year all will count as one unit.
Ofi +220 +.5 at Pinnacle. Yet another side I don't like to bet against (they have killed me this year these 'line bets'), but it is outrageous to give -260 to Iraklis. Iraklis is a better team now, has huge tradition with Ofi at home, revenge factor from last year away, but the line is wy off still. Since I would never bet Iraklis at -160 and would like more, I have to bet on Ofi,although I think they will lose. I mean Panathinaikos is -333 against Ksanthi and iraklis -260 against ofi?Cmon!
Now i am betting at a prop in Expekt, Thessaloniki teams to gather 5 or more points +145. 1 unit here also. This is like a hedge for the above bet. If iraklis win, we need two points from paok and Aris to cash on +145. Paok are expekted to win 0.93 points according to betbrain,and obviously I believe like 1.1 at least. Aris are expected to gather 1.18 and I believe it is about right. There is a good chance I lose everything,but what the f***, I am used to it this year. As I said I will stop once I hit -100 units:)
Actually the reason i bet the above is that Aris are in pieces too (like Paok) but will usually do well in the beginning of the championship,because they are a bigger team than average and in the beginning their fans will support and push the team to success. Anyway,the good thing is that both aris' and paok' coach know that the teams are BAD this year and they have to struggle to live up to their reputation and that makes me think they get 2 draws and have good chances for more than that. I mean more than the bookmaker implies. But even 2 drawws are enough for a hedge of the Iraklis bet. After all, just using the numbers given by Betbrain it amounts to a 47.5% possibility that they gather 5 or more, so it is a 16% EV using them. Chances are the numbers are a bit inflated for Iraklis win, but smaller for paok win or Aris draw. Even with the small team bias in betbrain,this must be a good bet.

Messages In This Thread

2-7, -5.73 units -- DOXARAS-4- -- 22 Aug 03, 2:10 am

OOOOPS -- DOXARAS-4- -- 22 Aug 03, 6:57 am

Another hit -- DOXARAS-4- -- 22 Aug 03, 4:35 pm

Sunderland -- DOXARAS-4- -- 22 Aug 03, 10:47 pm

results so far -- DOXARAS-4- -- 23 Aug 03, 8:03 pm

Lost every way possible... -- DOXARAS-4- -- 24 Aug 03, 11:30 am

the only good thing about it -- DOXARAS-4- -- 24 Aug 03, 11:49 am

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