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Pick Man U vs Bolton: Draw

Posted By: John May
Date: 15 Aug 03, 3:12 pm

Take the draw at 6.00 at betfair in this match.
Acccording to Jacques Black's analysis in his book "Football betting to win", every premiership match has a 28-30% probability of a draw going into the game, and that the draw probability actually goes up the more mismatched the teams are. A rather striking conclusion and one I don't completely accept despite the impressive statistical evidence Black produces in support of it (both linear and polynomial tests).
A sample of 78 matches in the previous five years between the three premiership leaders, and the relegated teams, shows a 21.79% probability of a draw. My sample is less statistically valid than Black's, but it is more current and relevant. It shows a decline in the prospects of a draw with utter mismatches, but still a significantly high probability, suggesting a draw is always a good bet in the premiership if you can get odds of 5.0 or greater. The discrepancy between my and Black's results may be due to the widening gulf between the top and bottom of the table, in the years since Black wrote his book, rather than just dumb statistical error.

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Messages In This Thread

Pick Man U vs Bolton: Draw -- John May -- 15 Aug 03, 3:12 pm
Absolute nonsense -- Jim Bean -- 18 Aug 03, 4:52 am

 


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