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small correction

Posted By: Dunbar
Date: 16 May 02, 10:28 am

In Response To: Way off, IMO (Dunbar)

In calculating some "fair exacta payoffs", I inadvertantly added $2 to the payoffs when I shouldn't have:

This is a gross underestimate of the fair payoff. The fair payoff should, in fact, be AT LEAST $22. (2-1,4-1 is $22; 4-1,2-1 is $26).

The correct numbers are $20 and $24.

This is a major error. Taking 4-1 for this exacta is betting with worse than a negative 50% expectation. The fair odds are at least 10-1.

That should be 'the fair odds are at least 9-1'.

BTW, Gary, it occurred to me that maybe you are remembering how to estimate the fair odds for a Daily Double and applying it to exactas. With Daily Doubles, you DO multiply the 2 win probabilities together to get the fair DD odds. But exactas are different.

--Dunbar

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Messages In This Thread

Way off, IMO -- Dunbar -- 16 May 02, 7:51 am
small correction -- Dunbar -- 16 May 02, 10:28 am

 


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