[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

Racing Forum

Yes, but . . .

Posted By: Jesse F. Knight
Date: 15 May 02, 3:21 pm

In Response To: Thank you Jesse- great post-- (D)

If the horse has been asked to give it his or her all and showed poor form, then you are absolutely correct that you cannot discard that evidence.

However, I have talked to more than one horse owner who has admitted to me privately that they do not send out the horse to win every race. Many times the horse is being conditioned. This can sometimes happen with injuries. Let us say seven races ago a horse took first but was injured ever so slightly. They try to race him a couple of times more and the horse does poorly. They rehab the horse, who comes around. Then they begin serious racing again. The horse goes through four more races. Maybe in one case he is bumped badly and finishes OOM. Maybe in another case the track was muddy, and he hates mud. Maybe in the other two races he was not called upon to do his best, he is just being conditioned for an all out effort. So if you were to look at his form, he would show a Second eight races ago, a First seven races ago and six straight races OOM. That is just one example. On the surface that appears to be poor form, but in actuality there are reasons for it.

In all honesty, sometimes, I suspect, the owner is working towards building up the pari-mutuel, disguising the quality of the mount. Heck, *I* would do it if I was an owner. This can be true especially of lower claiming races, I think--although I don't have any actual evidence of this.

However, frankly, I cannot tell you how to read when the horse has being called upon to give the race his all and when the owner is holding the horse back and when circumstances (track conditions, distance, etc.) contributed to poor form.

Sometimes I think I can tell; other times I cannot. When I talk about this approach, I admit there is much that is a judgment call. It shouldn't be viewed as a strictly mechanical selection process. I probably only bet half of the cases where I could.

More than anything, I want to make sure that the horse is not *afraid* of the winner's circle, which I sometimes believe they are.

Jesse F. Knight

Password:

Messages In This Thread

Contrarian Approach & Pizzola -- Jesse F. Knight -- 14 May 02, 2:45 pm
Pizzola -- D -- 14 May 02, 4:53 pm
Pizzola -- Mark Poe -- 14 May 02, 6:05 pm
What is CONTRARIAN- about his theories? (nt) -- D -- 14 May 02, 6:17 pm
Pizzola & Contrarian Theory -- Jesse F. Knight -- 14 May 02, 9:36 pm
Thank you Jesse- great post-- -- D -- 15 May 02, 2:49 pm
Yes, but . . . -- Jesse F. Knight -- 15 May 02, 3:21 pm
Sure- that makes sense-- -- D -- 15 May 02, 4:05 pm

 


Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Picks Post?
Message:

If you'd like to include a link to another page with your message,
please provide both the URL address and the title of the page:

Optional Link URL:
Optional Link Title:

If you'd like to have the option of deleting your post later,
please provide a password (CASE SENSITIVE!):

Password:

If you'd like e-mail notification of responses, please check this box:

 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

Racing Forum is maintained by Pi Yee Press