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too quick

Posted By: Dunbar
Date: 15 May 02, 10:58 am

Gary, I realize you were in a rush, so it's understandable that your answer didn't really address the problem.

I should have listed the odds for exactas as "cutoff" prices instead of "fair odds". For the exactas, I think "cutoff" is ok because we are talking about exacta boxes, but I see the point that everyone might not look at the box as a bet and look for a one-way ticket.

It doesn't matter if you call them "cutoff" or "fair odds", in either case they are too low. The numbers you gave are below BOTH ways in the exacta box, sometimes substantially, as I'll show below.

I simply don't have the time to post every conceivable probability for all combinations on exotic plays. It already takes almost as much time to post these selections as it does to handicap the cards. The exacta probabilities wouldn't add too much to my posts, but when I post trifectas, posting all possible probabilities would just be too much.

I agree that there is little point to doing this for trifectas. Trifecta odds are so volatile that even if you do check them before betting, the final odds may have little to do with what you saw when you bet. But it's not much work to do exactas, especially if you set up a spreadsheet with the Harville formula built in.

I also wouldn't begrudge you if you gave NO fair odds for exacta bets. (Please do continue to post fair win odds, though.) The fair exacta odds that you posted today seem way off to me. Here is a table showing all your exacta bets.

Race	PP	odds	P(wins)	P(Ex's)	Ex'a odds	Ex'a pay  Pro's cutoff

Ch 3rd	2	2.0	0.33	0.13	8.00	18.00	12.00

	5	3.0	0.25	0.11	9.00	20.00	12.00

							

Ch 5th	9	2.5	0.29	0.08	12.50	27.00	20.00

	6	4.0	0.20	0.07	14.00	30.00	20.00

							

	9	2.5	0.29	0.06	17.50	37.00	30.00

	7	6.0	0.14	0.05	21.00	44.00	30.00

							

	6	4.0	0.20	0.04	28.00	58.00	48.00

	7	6.0	0.14	0.03	30.00	62.00	48.00

							

Ch 10th	7	2.5	0.29	0.10	10.00	22.00	15.00

	4	3.0	0.25	0.10	10.50	23.00	15.00

							

Pim 5th	10	2.5	0.29	0.09	11.25	24.50	18.00

	1	3.5	0.22	0.08	12.25	26.50	18.00

							

Pim 8th	2	3.0	0.25	0.04	24.00	50.00	42.00

	1	7.0	0.13	0.04	28.00	58.00	42.00


The next to last column is the fair exacta odds that I calculate from
your own win odds, using the Harville formula. The last column is the "cutoff" you have recommended. In every case, your cutoff is below the apparent fair odds.

For example, the first 2 rows are for the 3rd race at Churchill. The post position of the 2 horses are in the 2nd column, #2 and #5. The first row is for a 2,5 Exacta. The second row is for the 5,2 exacta. The 3rd column gives your estimate of each horses fair win odds, 2-1 and 3-1. the 4th column converts those win odds to a probability of each horse winning, 0.33 and 0.25. The 5th column gives the probability of the exacta hitting, using the Harville formula (see previous post). The 6th column converts that probability to odds, 8-1 and 9-1. The 7th column converts the odds to a $2 payoff, $18 and $20. And the 8th column is the "cutoff" you have suggested in your post, $12. You can see that your cutoff is way below what seems to be a fair payoff based on your estimate of the win odds.

--Dunbar



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Messages In This Thread

too quick -- Dunbar -- 15 May 02, 10:58 am
corrected table -- Dunbar -- 16 May 02, 10:34 am

 


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