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Well said, and I would need to study to even get up to knowing "little"

Posted By: Fezzik
Date: 15 May 02, 3:21 am

In Response To: a difference (ricky)

But like you said, I "know" that 20-1 Kentucky Derby winners likely shouldn't suddenly vault up to having true 1/3 chances of winning other major races.

Call WE 1/4 x 1/3 to win the Triple Crown. I think I'm being kind here. It's likely less than that.

I still think must horse racing bettors work hard to not make money. Slap an obvious +EV bet out there with relatively small vig (No TCrown at -1000). Do they flood the windows with no bets? Nope. They sharps blow off the good bet (looking for better in the -18% vig world of horse racing) and the squares bet the +800 and drive it down to -950/+750. Amazing!

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Messages In This Thread

a difference -- ricky -- 15 May 02, 1:23 am
Well said, and I would need to study to even get up to knowing "little" -- Fezzik -- 15 May 02, 3:21 am
One note -- StevieY -- 15 May 02, 8:42 am
correction and comment -- Dunbar -- 15 May 02, 9:46 am
Didn't mean to say he would win the Preakness -- StevieY -- 15 May 02, 9:58 am
lengths of races -- ricky -- 15 May 02, 10:39 am
Lengths -- StevieY -- 15 May 02, 10:42 am
Maybe you were thinking of Charismatic -- Dunbar -- 15 May 02, 11:52 am
Yes, that's who it was. Thanks. (nt) -- StevieY -- 15 May 02, 11:54 am
how did he do in the Belmont -- ricky -- 15 May 02, 12:00 pm
Finished 3rd in 1999 Belmont -- DowntownMan -- 15 May 02, 12:33 pm
might have won, but... -- Dunbar -- 15 May 02, 1:15 pm
interesting...i would've thought much lower odds -- ricky -- 15 May 02, 2:06 pm
Not really -- StevieY -- 15 May 02, 5:19 pm

 


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