Racing Forum

Good luck today Ricky and all other board members!

Posted By: seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth
Date: 22 May 02, 7:39 am

In Response To: Fez and others- efficiency of racing lines-- comments appreciated (D)

1. The take at the track- in most cases- is much greater than that of a sportsbook.

TRUE

2. Line moves at the track are in direct proportion to the amount of money wagered- which may- or may not- be the case at a sportsbook- as we've discussed previously (see Lupo).

TRUE-BUT LUPO IS A TERRIBLE EXAMPLE, HE IS A REAL WUSS, HE WAS THE FIRST IN A LONG LINE TO BAR SHARP MONEY, WIN A BET GET SHOWN THE DOOR. BUT IN 99.9% OF THE CASES THE EXCEPTIONS BEING EXTREMELY LOPSIDED ONE SIDED ACTION IT IS TRUE FOR BOTH.

3. At the track- the lines are set by the public. At the sportsbook-
they are set by the sportsbook.

THIS SEEMS TO BE A SEMANTICS THING, AS OBVIOUSLY ONCE THE OPENERS ARE UP THE PUBLIC DETERMINES THE NUMBERS.

Now- i think we would all be willing to concede (and again- correct me if im wrong) that if the overall handle on a race is too small- theres simply no way to beat racing-- as one's wagers would have too big of an impact- with respect to line movement.

FALSE I HAVE AT LEAST 15 PLACES TO BET WHERE MY BETS NEVER GET INTO THE POOLS.

That being said- (and i know its a rather large assumption- but for the sake of argument) assume that your bets will be into a pool whose size is large enough- that your bet doesnt distort the lines a great deal. With that assumption in mind-- my question to you Fez- and others who would like to respond- is this:

Is it possible- that in estimating the chances of one to be able to beat horse racing- we're not taking into account- how much of an impact #3 (the public setting the market) has- in giving the sharp player value?

THE BACKBONE OF WINNING HORSE PLAYERS IS THE ABILITY TO IDENTIFY AN ANIMAL THAT IS GROSSLY OVERBET AND CAPITALIZE. IN ORDER TO BE GROSSLY OVERBET, ONE NEEDS BOTH SQUARE AND SHARP MONEY.

In other words Fez- a large, large chunk of your strategy in betting sports- is fading the public. A lot- if not- almost all of your value- comes from fading the public. How would you like for the public to set the line on this Lakers game on Saturday? What do you think that # would look like? If thats a bad example- come up with countless others that wouldnt be.

THIS WHOLE CONCEPT IS GETTING VASTLY OVERRATED, THE SPREAD 99.9% OF THE TIME IS A BAROMETER OF EXPECTED BALANCED ACTION, BUT IN TODAY'S DAY AND AGE VIRTUALLY EVERY GAME IS VERY LOPSIDED, WHY? BECAUSE OF ALL THE STEAM CHASING AND THE BASIC INABILITY OF PLAYERS TO FORUMLATE AND BET THEIR OWN OPINIONS, YOU WILL NOT WIN LONGTERM IN SPORTS BETTING SOLELY VS THE PUBLIC, WHY? BECAUSE TOO HIGH A % OF PLAYERS ARE CHASING BW'S PLAYS AND FACT IS HE WINS.

My question becomes-- given the probable inefficiency of the racing market-- is it almost impossible to attempt to compare these two markets- related to the impact of a given hold %?

SPORTS ARE CLEARLY MORE LUCRATIVE RIGHT NOW. CAN BET ANYTHING VIRTUALLY JUICE FREE IF YOU HAVE ENOUGH ACCOUNTS.

Aren't we almost talking about apples and oranges? 10-15% take when the sportsbook managers set and maintain the line? Nearly impossible to beat. 10-15% take when the line is set EXCLUSIVELY by the public?
Well- what do you think? Thanks in advance- to all who take the time to read- and respond.

INTERESTING POST, I NEVER ANSWERED YOUR REBATE Q, BUT SIMPLY PUT WHEN FULL CARD SIMULCASTING BECAME A NATIONAL NORM, IT BECAME VERY COMPETITIVE AND WE COULD SHOP OUR VOLUME AROUND 5% IS PRETTY MUCH THE HIGHEST ONE CAN FND, BUT AS A GUY THAT MAKES AROUND 3.5% AT THE TRACK THE REBATE MORE THAN DOUBLES MY EARNINGS.

Messages In This Thread

Fez and others- efficiency of racing lines-- comments appreciated -- D -- 22 May 02, 4:31 am

Good luck today Ricky and all other board members! -- seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 22 May 02, 7:39 am

Another difference between markets -- Gladstone -- 22 May 02, 5:43 pm

futures -- ricky -- 22 May 02, 8:19 pm

Thats an interesting comparison-- (ATTN: Fez) -- D -- 22 May 02, 9:12 pm

a quick question -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 23 May 02, 9:01 pm

Beating one place? -- D -- 23 May 02, 9:37 pm

I wasn't specifically singling you out -- seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 24 May 02, 6:58 am

No problem -- D -- 24 May 02, 8:11 am

The KEY point to sports futures. -- Fezzik -- 24 May 02, 4:50 pm

Fez- and others -- D -- 24 May 02, 10:13 pm

Fez- and others-- one more thing -- D -- 24 May 02, 10:29 pm

Some finer points? -- Seenmoreracesthananyhumanonearth -- 25 May 02, 7:23 am

Seenmore-- -- D -- 25 May 02, 7:46 am

does this help -- ricky -- 25 May 02, 10:43 am

Thanks Ricky -- D -- 25 May 02, 10:56 am

Seenmore-- -- D -- 26 May 02, 9:11 am

Responses. -- Fezzik -- 27 May 02, 2:22 am

Fez- I guess this is my 'point' -- D -- 27 May 02, 3:29 am

Exactly.... -- Burnt Card -- 22 May 02, 9:34 pm

I meant sports futures markets -- ricky -- 22 May 02, 10:26 pm

Details different, problem-solving approach similar (nt) -- Burnt Card -- 23 May 02, 8:26 am

The public does set the line on the Laker game. -- Fezzik -- 24 May 02, 4:43 pm

is the reverse true? -- ricky -- 24 May 02, 6:10 pm

Fez-- and others -- D -- 24 May 02, 10:22 pm

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