Racing Forum

Reponse

Posted By: D
Date: 19 May 02, 4:47 pm

In Response To: 2 & 3 (ricky)

You stated, "
2. I don't think anything's changed. If War Emblem was to win the Preakness, he is sure to look strong in winning it, is he not? I mean, even if he held off another horse by a nose, one could say that he was strong enough to hold off that horse. So, the question is not how he looks in winning the race, the only question is did he win the race or not."

I just dont think this is the case. Id be curious to hear others opinions. Dont get me wrong- you are right- in thinking that if he won it- people would say he was strong regardless. But its the way that he won it that was impressive- and that confirmed his Derby run--
which was said to be due to a 'lucky trip' more than anything.
And don't get me wrong- that still may be true-- he did have an UNREAL trip in the Derby. But he proved in the Preakness that PERHAPS he didnt need that trip to win.

As far as #3-- the way you view futures- makes sense to me........
But I KNOW that there will be people who will be critical of the first passage, "When looking at bets, I always look at risk in terms of the downside. If I make a $1000 bet on a 50-1 shot, and I am typically comfortable with $5000 or less, and that team becomes even money in the Championship game, then the value of the ticket becomes worth about $25,500 (50% of getting back $51,000, 50% of getting nothing). And so its really now a $25K bet, which exceeds the $5000 risk level, and thus I would say that's worth a hedge."

And while you're gonna bet at the best possible # on the hedge-- chances are- its still gonna be a -EV bet. So the question arises-
why not simply bet a # that if the bet comes to fruition- you dont have to make a -EV bet- in the end?
In other words-- why arent you betting appx. $200 on the 50-1 shot-- in the first place? Its this first wager that has +EV.

Messages In This Thread

Belmont questions -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 2:38 am

Answers to the easy ones.. -- Sluicebox -- 19 May 02, 8:10 am

a few more answers -- Dunbar -- 19 May 02, 8:32 am

Bid got hurt though... -- StevieY -- 19 May 02, 11:41 am

yep -- Dunbar -- 20 May 02, 3:14 am

added question -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 11:28 am

No -- Rusty Starfish -- 19 May 02, 11:36 am

thanks smartass. (nt) -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 12:26 pm

Not your most important question, but -- Gladstone -- 19 May 02, 1:26 pm

A week isn't enough for horses... -- Burnt Card -- 19 May 02, 1:56 pm

Ricky, the dark cloulds gather around, but we aren't dead yet. -- Fezzik -- 19 May 02, 12:42 pm

don't worry about me -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 1:13 pm

Hedging( War Emblem) futures -- D -- 19 May 02, 4:18 pm

2 & 3 -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 4:38 pm

Reponse -- D -- 19 May 02, 4:47 pm

here we go again :) -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 5:12 pm

Im not the one- -- D -- 19 May 02, 5:39 pm

if you disagree, please respond to this post -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 6:19 pm

Nothing to worry about yet -- patrick -- 20 May 02, 8:20 am

issues and answers -- Dunbar -- 20 May 02, 8:35 am

response -- ricky -- 20 May 02, 9:58 am

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