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2 & 3

Posted By: ricky
Date: 19 May 02, 4:38 pm

In Response To: Hedging( War Emblem) futures (D)

2. I don't think anything's changed. If War Emblem was to win the Preakness, he is sure to look strong in winning it, is he not? I mean, even if he held off another horse by a nose, one could say that he was strong enough to hold off that horse. So, the question is not how he looks in winning the race, the only question is did he win the race or not. But again, that's coming from a guy with little knowledge about horses. The original calculations assumed a 50% probability of War Emblem winning the Belmont given that he wins the Preakness. From what I am hearing, that seems pretty close to other's guesses even after War Emblem has won the Preakness. So basically that original assumption was close, which means little has changed, because that line is expected.

3. When looking at bets, I always look at risk in terms of the downside. If I make a $1000 bet on a 50-1 shot, and I am typically comfortable with $5000 or less, and that team becomes even money in the Championship game, then the value of the ticket becomes worth about $25,500 (50% of getting back $51,000, 50% of getting nothing). And so its really now a $25K bet, which exceeds the $5000 risk level, and thus I would say that's worth a hedge.

But in this case, its very different, this was not a longshot but the exact reverse. Since I keep in mind my risk level when I make a wager, if I lay $5000 to win $500, I know that at worst this will be a about a straight up $2500 wager, which it is. And that's still within the grasp of my risk tolerance. I guess what I'm saying is that my style of betting/hedging makes this situation one where I would never need to hedge because I would never be risking more than my top tolerance level. But that's just me.

Messages In This Thread

Belmont questions -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 2:38 am

Answers to the easy ones.. -- Sluicebox -- 19 May 02, 8:10 am

a few more answers -- Dunbar -- 19 May 02, 8:32 am

Bid got hurt though... -- StevieY -- 19 May 02, 11:41 am

yep -- Dunbar -- 20 May 02, 3:14 am

added question -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 11:28 am

No -- Rusty Starfish -- 19 May 02, 11:36 am

thanks smartass. (nt) -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 12:26 pm

Not your most important question, but -- Gladstone -- 19 May 02, 1:26 pm

A week isn't enough for horses... -- Burnt Card -- 19 May 02, 1:56 pm

Ricky, the dark cloulds gather around, but we aren't dead yet. -- Fezzik -- 19 May 02, 12:42 pm

don't worry about me -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 1:13 pm

Hedging( War Emblem) futures -- D -- 19 May 02, 4:18 pm

2 & 3 -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 4:38 pm

Reponse -- D -- 19 May 02, 4:47 pm

here we go again :) -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 5:12 pm

Im not the one- -- D -- 19 May 02, 5:39 pm

if you disagree, please respond to this post -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 6:19 pm

Nothing to worry about yet -- patrick -- 20 May 02, 8:20 am

issues and answers -- Dunbar -- 20 May 02, 8:35 am

response -- ricky -- 20 May 02, 9:58 am

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