Racing Forum

a few more answers

Posted By: Dunbar
Date: 19 May 02, 8:32 am

In Response To: Belmont questions (ricky)

5b. If there are going to be some new horses who may challenge to win the Belmont, why weren't they in the previous 2 TC races? And can any of these horses be any good?

One important horse who is expected to run in the Belmont is Sunday Break. This horse looked very good while a close 3rd to Bhudda and Medaglia d' Oro in the Wood. The reason he didn't run in the Kentucky Derby was that the field was full and Sunday Break hadn't won as much purse money in graded stakes races as the top 20. Having missed that chance, the owner & trainer decided to just skip the Preakness and aim for the Belmont. He is a serious threat to knock off War Emblem. If he runs, I would expect him to be the 2nd favorite.

6. What will War Emblem's odds be for the Belmont?

My guess is somewhere between 4-5 and 9-5. That's a huge range, but it depends on who goes up against him.

8. How much interest is there in the Belmont Stakes in non Triple Crown years compared to Triple Crown years? Meaning how much more money would one expect to be wagered on the race when a horse is aiming for the Triple Crown.

I don't have any figures, but there is MUCH more interest in Triple Crown years.

10. Is it possible that other owners might be actually happy to lose the race given that a horse wins the Triple Crown because it is good for the industry? (I know its probably a stupid conspiracy theory, and I would only think of it because I have huge neg ev on my wager now).

There have been 8 horses since Affirmed with a chance to win the Triple Crown at Belmont, including some very good ones, and none has done it. No owner will pass up a chance to win his own Belmont Stakes for some vague shot at helping the industry.

11. Or do other owners gear up even more for the third leg of a TC? If so, what can they do that they didn't do at Pimlico?

It's impossible to gear up more for any race than the Kentucky Derby. The Belmont is on a par with the Preakness in importance. All the owners can do is try the same stuff and hope that War Emblem won't last the extra distance. I think the field will be smaller. It's crazy to ask a 3-yr-old to run 1.5 miles, unless you have a decent shot at part of the purse money.

Some excellent horses that seemed a lock to win the Belmont have failed. Spectacular Bid and Alysheba come immediately to mind. War Emblem is hardly a lock. But this year's crop appears pretty weak, and War Emblem may just have enough to pull it off.

--Dunbar

Messages In This Thread

Belmont questions -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 2:38 am

Answers to the easy ones.. -- Sluicebox -- 19 May 02, 8:10 am

a few more answers -- Dunbar -- 19 May 02, 8:32 am

Bid got hurt though... -- StevieY -- 19 May 02, 11:41 am

yep -- Dunbar -- 20 May 02, 3:14 am

added question -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 11:28 am

No -- Rusty Starfish -- 19 May 02, 11:36 am

thanks smartass. (nt) -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 12:26 pm

Not your most important question, but -- Gladstone -- 19 May 02, 1:26 pm

A week isn't enough for horses... -- Burnt Card -- 19 May 02, 1:56 pm

Ricky, the dark cloulds gather around, but we aren't dead yet. -- Fezzik -- 19 May 02, 12:42 pm

don't worry about me -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 1:13 pm

Hedging( War Emblem) futures -- D -- 19 May 02, 4:18 pm

2 & 3 -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 4:38 pm

Reponse -- D -- 19 May 02, 4:47 pm

here we go again :) -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 5:12 pm

Im not the one- -- D -- 19 May 02, 5:39 pm

if you disagree, please respond to this post -- ricky -- 19 May 02, 6:19 pm

Nothing to worry about yet -- patrick -- 20 May 02, 8:20 am

issues and answers -- Dunbar -- 20 May 02, 8:35 am

response -- ricky -- 20 May 02, 9:58 am

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