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My results

Posted By: Dunbar
Date: 19 May 02, 8:12 am

In Response To: My Preakness line and comments (Dunbar)

Medaglia d' Oro 3.5
Harlan's Hol 7
War Emblem 3
Proud Citizen 8
Booklet ....... 30
Equality 12
Crimson Hero 30
Easyfromtheget 50
USS tinosa 12
Magic Weisner 50
Straight Gin 75
Menacing Den 200

The horses I would bet to win if they are going off at better than those odds are: Medaglia d’ Oro (very unlikely), Harlan’s Holiday (possible), War Emblem (possible), Proud Citizen (unlikely), Equality (very possible) and USS Tinosa (possible). The horses most likely to be offered above those odds are War Emblem, Equality and USS tinosa. If no horse is offered above those odds, I won’t bet. If the track is muddy or sloppy, I won’t bet.
...
For horses with “fair odds” under 5-1, I’ll bet 1 unit. For horses with fair odds between 6-1 and 10-1, I’ll bet ½ unit. For horses with fair odds between 11-1 and 20-1, I’ll bet ¼ unit.

The only horse of the 6 I considered whose odds exceeded my estimate of fair odds was Equality. Unfortunately, War Emblem's 2.8-1 did not exceed my 3-1 cut-off. Accordingly, my record for posted picks for the Preakness (and the year) stands at -1/4 unit.

--Dunbar

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Messages In This Thread

My Preakness line and comments -- Dunbar -- 17 May 02, 7:41 am
My results -- Dunbar -- 19 May 02, 8:12 am

 


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