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I'm the one that is wasting my time with you.

Posted By: Fezzik
Date: 18 May 02, 2:11 pm

This is becomeing Singeresh. Rob Singer is the guy that hold AKQ suited over KKQQ, and when questioned about what a negative expectation play this is, he retorts, I hit a $20,000 Royal just last week doing this!

To summarize:

You estimated your $20 5/8 exacta bet will pay $350.

You also estimated that horse 5 (Medaglia) has a .1667 chance to win the race and horse 8 (War Emblem) a .1000 chance to win.

So using YOUR probabilities, this exacta has a .1667 x (your estimate of Medaglia's chances to win) x (War Emblem's chance to get 2nd given Medaglia wins). I'll let you fill in the blanks for us on what W.E's chance to win 2nd given Medaglia wins. I'll use 12%, since that is what the formula gives us. Feel free to use any other reasonable number.

.1667 x .12 = .02

So using YOUR probabilities, you want to make a bet that you say will pay around 17.5 to 1, that YOUR probabilities call for only happening 2% of the time.

Like seeing Mr. Singer holding AKQ suited over KKQQ, the above is all I need to see from an "expert" to know the real undeniable truth.

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I'm the one that is wasting my time with you. -- Fezzik -- 18 May 02, 2:11 pm

 


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