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answer

Posted By: Dunbar
Date: 18 May 02, 10:47 am

In Response To: That has been my experience as well-- (D)

1. Doesn't a larger percentage of the track take % come from the exotic pools? And to follow-- if thats the case-- wouldn't that make the exotics LESS profitable in most cases?

Yes.

2. Gary-- unless im misreading you- you believe that the exacta pools are somehow more profitable on heavy volume days at the track? Can you explain to me why?

Gary believes that there is more money bet by unskilled bettors on heavy volume days. That is certainly plausible.

Im not questioning your math-- i just dont understand how a larger handle makes them more profitable. Don't they take the same % out of the pools? Do you simply believe that there are overlays in the exacta pools as well- on 'public' days?
And- even if that IS the case-- if the % take on these exotic pools is higher than the straight wagers- why play them at all? This question applies to 'public' and 'non-public' days.

Even though there is generally a higher vig on the exacta bet, it may still have higher ev than a straight win bet. It all boils down to how much money is bet on each exacta combination you are considering.

What fezzik and I are saying is that it is very unlikely that a horse that is hugely overbet to win will be underbet in the exacta pool.

--Dunbar

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Messages In This Thread

Gary- and others: Exacta pools -- D -- 17 May 02, 11:49 pm
Not an expert, but... -- James -- 18 May 02, 12:08 am
there's an interesting paradox -- Dunbar -- 18 May 02, 9:12 am
That has been my experience as well-- -- D -- 18 May 02, 9:41 am
answer -- Dunbar -- 18 May 02, 10:47 am
I do agree Dunbar- -- D -- 18 May 02, 12:56 pm
that's not quite what I said -- Dunbar -- 18 May 02, 2:07 pm
Thanks for the clarification-- I understand- and agree (nt) -- D -- 18 May 02, 2:13 pm

 


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