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there's an interesting paradox

Posted By: Dunbar
Date: 18 May 02, 9:12 am

In Response To: Not an expert, but... (James)

The fact that many (most?) players box their exactas also tends to bias the payouts, by making the exacta payouts resemble quinellas that don't depend on order, so a Booklet-Medaglio exacta will not pay much more than a Medaglio-Booklet exacta, even though the second is presumably more likely.

I, too, assume that lots of bettors box their exacta bets. Yet, what I have found when comparing actual payoffs to fair payoffs (based on win odds--using Harville) is that exactas where a heavy favorite comes in second are the most likely ones to exceed the "fair payoff" threshold. To give an example, if you have an 8-5 horse and a 5-1 horse, very often the 5-1,8-5 exacta will be an overlay, while the 8-5,5-1 exacta will not. This is inconsistent with the assumption that most of the exacta pool consists of boxed exacta bets.

--Dunbar

Messages In This Thread

Gary- and others: Exacta pools -- D -- 17 May 02, 11:49 pm

Not an expert, but... -- James -- 18 May 02, 12:08 am

there's an interesting paradox -- Dunbar -- 18 May 02, 9:12 am

That has been my experience as well-- -- D -- 18 May 02, 9:41 am

answer -- Dunbar -- 18 May 02, 10:47 am

I do agree Dunbar- -- D -- 18 May 02, 12:56 pm

that's not quite what I said -- Dunbar -- 18 May 02, 2:07 pm

Thanks for the clarification-- I understand- and agree (nt) -- D -- 18 May 02, 2:13 pm

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