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Not an expert, but...

Posted By: James
Date: 18 May 02, 12:08 am

In Response To: Gary- and others: Exacta pools (D)

I think the theory is that big events like the Triple Crown races attract a lot of casual "lottery players" who either play lucky numbers with no handicapping involved, or intentionally bet longshots in the hopes of a lottery-style payout.

If these players make up a large enough segment of the betting pool, the odds for the longshot combinations will be depressed relative to true odds.

Whether this effect could ever be large enough to make the short-priced exactas +EV is a question I can't answer.

The fact that many (most?) players box their exactas also tends to bias the payouts, by making the exacta payouts resemble quinellas that don't depend on order, so a Booklet-Medaglio exacta will not pay much more than a Medaglio-Booklet exacta, even though the second is presumably more likely.

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Messages In This Thread

Gary- and others: Exacta pools -- D -- 17 May 02, 11:49 pm
Not an expert, but... -- James -- 18 May 02, 12:08 am
there's an interesting paradox -- Dunbar -- 18 May 02, 9:12 am
That has been my experience as well-- -- D -- 18 May 02, 9:41 am
answer -- Dunbar -- 18 May 02, 10:47 am
I do agree Dunbar- -- D -- 18 May 02, 12:56 pm
that's not quite what I said -- Dunbar -- 18 May 02, 2:07 pm
Thanks for the clarification-- I understand- and agree (nt) -- D -- 18 May 02, 2:13 pm

 


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