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The Math: Dunbar to the rescue.

Posted By: Fezzik
Date: 17 May 02, 7:31 pm

By the way, every time I've ever spoken or read something by Dunbar I've come away amazed at how sharp Dunbar is!

Dunbar's post (which looks to be a lock to win Post of the Month), has the true estimated breakeven odds of the exacta 1. Medaglia 2. War Emblem to have a 8% chance to hit. These odds are based on no handicapping tweaks, just the marketplaces' expectations. So Dunbar concludes that we would need a $25 or higher payout on a $2 bet to justify this bet. I assume it's likely the actual exacta payout would be a little beneath this, but let's go with it, and assume it will be $25 for every $2 bet. So we would need over an 8% chance to justify the 1. Medaglia, 2. WE exacta bet.

Based on the Pro's odds, he fades Medaglia and WE's chances. He gives Medaglia a 16.67% chance to win. Given Medaglia wins, what are the odds W.E. gets 2nd? Well, the Pro gives him only a 10% chance to win the race. Based on this, Dunbar's formula would give W.E. a 12% chance to get 2nd, given Medaglia wins. What the heck, let's blow off the 12% calculated chance and assume for whatever bizarre reason W.E. likes to follow directly behind Medaglia (maybe a Medaglia butt fetish). Let's give him a whopping 24% chance to win 2nd (ridiculously optimistic).

Dunbar's formula on Pro's Numbers: .1667 x .10/(1-.1667)= 2% chance to win the 1. Medagila 2. WE combo

Dunbar's formula on Pro's probablility numbers with ridiculously optimistic adjustment gives 4% chance to win the 1. Medaglia 2. WE Combo

In general, when someone gives me parameters that point to a 2-4% chance of an event happening, and advocates betting that event even though it will payout at only 12.5-1 or so, I come away underwhelmed.

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The Math: Dunbar to the rescue. -- Fezzik -- 17 May 02, 7:31 pm

 


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