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My comments and predictions: Fade the Pro

Posted By: Fezzik
Date: 17 May 02, 5:31 pm

Prior to this write-up, I posted that it's likely the Pro is not able to win betting races. Based on this post, I'd be shocked if the Pro was a winning bettor. Shocked. Amazed. Incredulous. Why? Let's take a look at his analysis.

The very good: The pro takes the posted Preakness lines, backs out the house take-out, and gets adjusted "best guess odds" of the true chances each horse will win assuming a perfectly efficient market.

The still looking good: The pro then shows "his line" best probability estimates of the chances each horse will win, based on his handicapping. To summarize: The Pro thinks Harlan's Holiday and Booklet are undervalued; he thinks Medaglia d'Oro and War Emblem are very overvalued. He takes the shorter priced Harlan as a bet to win. I cannot speak to the accuracy of the handicapping, but given it's accurate, this all makes sense.

The bad: The Exacta Box. What in the world is going on here? The Pro has handicapped Medalgia d'Oro to be way overvalued, but now wants to box him as one of his key picks into his main exacta? His rationale is that Medalgia doesn't need to win so this bet can have positive expectation? Huh? I can see what is going on. Since The Pro has this horse finishing 2nd he wants to put him into his exactas. But this is just bad betting, IMO. He gives this horse only a 16.67% chance to win. Given this was accurate, how high can his chance really be to finish 2nd? Certainly not high enough to justify some puny exacta payout should he finish in the top 2. This pick is completely inconsistent with his probabilities. I'm lost.

The ugly: The exacta Wheel. Let me get this straight. Tons of exacta plays shown, including the Medaglia horse WITH War Emblem. So the Pro is exacta betting the two horses he feels are the most overvalued. Am I on Candid Camera? Not to mention wheeling in War Emblem in numerous other combinations. The Pro thinks this 3-1 has only a 10% chance to win, but still wants some Exacta action with him. Why? Because he has W.E. finishing 4th and does not want to get shut out on his exacta. So what if the payout will be smaller than it should be, the Pro wants to cover all the numbers.

My conclusion: Looks a great deal like a roulette player splashing chips on tons of combinations, making sure he has numerous ways to win. At least roulette has only a 5.26% track take-out.

I absolutely refuse to believe any "real pro" finds a 3-1 posted horse like War Emblem that he

1. Concludes has only a 10% chance to win AND
2. Includes in any exacta/trifecta bet as having good value.

........Is everyone on Dope?

.....Mr. Hand. Fast Times at Ridgemont High.

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Messages In This Thread

My comments and predictions: Fade the Pro -- Fezzik -- 17 May 02, 5:31 pm
agree with fezzik and ricky -- Dunbar -- 17 May 02, 9:18 pm

 


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