Racing Forum

preakness thoughts

Posted By: davie
Date: 16 May 02, 7:24 pm

In Response To: request for early posted preakness picks (rcdavies)

just a few thoughts on the preakness. to start with, churchill definitely screwed with the track to make it fast on derby day. it was vastly different than the day before when take charge lady was caught in the filly race. they tended to come from off the pace and on the outside on the friday. then bang! speed and the inside the place to be on saturday - all day.
so when w.e. got that relatively easy lead the race was over - but he sure did it the right way. he was tons the best! his two previous races were also over unbelievably speed favoring tracks at sportsmans park with relatively easy leads. so, obviously you look to play against such a horse. the problem is these biased races may have worked to help keep him fresh and pimlico is pretty fair to speed. also his beyers are overpowering when compared to most of the field so the potential is there to withstand a more heated pace. the pace should be faster but i only see one who will go with w.e. for sure and that is table limit (lucas). ward (especially with day aboard) has been working on rating booklet so i think he will stalk the top pair. those three should hurt the chances of menacing dennis, proud citizen and equality who are likely to be pushed a bit further back and a little wide. all three lack a big closing punch and will be farther back than normal. since table limit cant survive a w.e. duel and i dont think booklet is quite good enuff (and i dont like the position of the other three outside horses despite the long run into the first turn), i'm looking inside.
1. USS Tinosa could be tough off of his 2nd while wide to frankel's horse (the favorite) two races back. i like that his connections wanted to run him in the derby and his fast 46 blowout tuesday. that could mean a fresh horse with derby quality. it should be mentioned that almost all preakness winners have started in the derby. anotherwords, if you have a classic quality horse, you go after the big one. dont point for the second jewel if you have a chance at the first. they tried but just couldnt get him in. he is a must use at 15-1.
2. magic weisner who is the local horse looks a bit over his head but i will include him for smaller numbers in the bottom of my exotics. he is a versatile horse who may run ok at a huge price.
3. i dont like straight gin. i think there is an outside chance that zito will send him after w.e. either way i see him with little upside off of his dull blue grass and spiral. he doent quite have enuff closing punch or early speed.
4. crimson hero is improving and comes off a second to proud citizen at speed favoring keenland while coming from off the pace. the pace in this race will certainly be better for him than in that race. proud citizen jumped up after the lexington so i'll look at it as a positive key race. thus, he has a big upside and is a must use at 15-1.
5. medaglia d'oro figures tough. he is the favorite and favorites historically do very well in the preakness. i like that his tough trip in the derby prevented him from being "used." he should be relatively fresh and run well from just off the pace.
6. harlin's holiday is a tough one for me to figure. he might run better than the derby, but i see more upside and better prices with the 1 and 4 so he gets the cold shoulder for no real good reason. i did read that he has lost some weight and some gloss from his coat. at 5-1 thay's enuff reason for me.
7. easyfromthegitgo looks ok, but again wasnt moving as well as crimson hero at the end and was inside of that one in his last race and has less upside with 9 relatively similar races.
12. i dont really like proud citizen but because he worked well after the derby and im using crimson hero (based partly on the lexington), i will include him as a saver in exotics despite my fears regarding a less than ideal trip.
in horse racing i find it really tough coming up with selections ahead of time with track conditions, weather, and prices all so variable but my bets will be something like what is shown below:
(i think a wet track helps the 1,4,6,7,10,13, so my bets would change a bit for that with 2,5 and 8 used slightly less and 6,7,10 and 13 included a bit with the 1 and 4).
$100 wp on 1 (@ approximately 15 to 20-1)
$50 wp on 4 (@ approximately 15 to 20-1)
$10 exacta box 1,4,5 (too lazy to give all these exacta min payoffs - dunbar could you do 'em and the tri's too :)
$5 exacta box 1,4,5,8
$5 exacta 1,5,8/1,2,4,5,8
$5 exacta 1,4,/1,2,4,5,8,12
$5 exacta 5,8,12/1,4
$2 exacta 1,4,5,8/1,2,4,5,8
$1 tri 1,5,8/1,2,4,5,8/1,2,4,5,8
$1 tri 5,8,/1,2,4,5,6,7,8,10,12,13/1,2,4
total wager is $680 if i did the quick math right. how about a 1/4/2 finish!!! one time!!!! then for the next 3 years i can brag on here how my return on investment is like 1000% in every post :)
all comments are appreciated.
later davie

Messages In This Thread

request for early posted preakness picks -- rcdavies -- 16 May 02, 1:11 pm

Going with the Derby winner... -- StevieY -- 16 May 02, 4:57 pm

Medaglia d'Oro -- Another Anon -- 16 May 02, 6:41 pm

I dont know how-- -- D -- 16 May 02, 6:53 pm

Don't know -- StevieY -- 16 May 02, 9:54 pm

Nice pick StevieY (nt) -- DowntownMan -- 18 May 02, 5:31 pm

preakness thoughts -- davie -- 16 May 02, 7:24 pm

$5 exacta 1,5,8/1,2,4,5,8 , very nice! (nt) -- StevieY -- 18 May 02, 5:09 pm

Racing Forum is maintained by Pi Yee Press