[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

Racing Forum

I told this to a horse winner, and he told me ....

Posted By: ricky
Date: 16 May 02, 2:13 pm

In Response To: Exactas--How To Calculate Fair Exacta Odds (Dunbar)

This post should not be construed in anyway as saying that the original post is incorrect...on the contrary, I think it is fantastic. But I thought I could add a little for exceptions.

Several years ago, I was talking to a professional handicapper about this. For alot of reasons, I believe that he had (maybe still) a huge edge in picking winners.

I told him about this method of how to pick for place and show and for exactas (mainly because his backer wanted me to show him how to maximize his talents). This is what he told me :

That's pretty good, and it would work in a perfect world...but there's one problem, its not a perfect world. There are some horses that if he doesn't win the race, there's no guarantee that he came in 2nd or 3rd, etc. Meaning that there are some horses that are basically all or nothing, they don't follow a typical distribution that we would all expect and which the formula you listed above assumes. Thus it is very possible for a horse to have win and place odds not really correspond as much to each other as the math guys might think. He said, its true that many horses will follow this, but there are some that may not. So you can not blindly use the formula on every horse, you still must know the horses to know if they have "skew" in them.

So if a horse's win market implies that his place market should be X from the math, but it looks like your are getting the best of it by betting on it (due to the math), it may be that you are just losing the vig just like everyone else because the horse in question is skewed.

I believed him then. And I see no reason not to believe him now. But I wonder what other horse experts think.

Password:

Messages In This Thread

Exactas--How To Calculate Fair Exacta Odds -- Dunbar -- 16 May 02, 11:00 am
Great Post, Dunbar! -- Jesse F. Knight -- 16 May 02, 1:06 pm
Absolutely- superb post-- -- D -- 16 May 02, 1:48 pm
I told this to a horse winner, and he told me .... -- ricky -- 16 May 02, 2:13 pm
completely agree -- Dunbar -- 16 May 02, 2:58 pm
Articles by Harville, Ziemba, Benter, etc -- 666 -- 17 May 02, 12:04 am
Ziemba Book -- Jesse F. Knight -- 17 May 02, 11:53 am
Good luck -- StevieY -- 17 May 02, 12:22 pm
I have one -- ricky -- 17 May 02, 12:30 pm
No, you should sell it to me:) (nt) -- StevieY -- 17 May 02, 12:35 pm
auction -- ricky -- 17 May 02, 12:53 pm
if anyone cares, its out on ebay (nt) -- ricky -- 22 May 02, 11:26 am
I ordered one from Amazon.com today -- Dunbar -- 17 May 02, 4:47 pm
I tried that twice... -- StevieY -- 17 May 02, 4:50 pm

 


Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Picks Post?
Message:

If you'd like to include a link to another page with your message,
please provide both the URL address and the title of the page:

Optional Link URL:
Optional Link Title:

If you'd like to have the option of deleting your post later,
please provide a password (CASE SENSITIVE!):

Password:

If you'd like e-mail notification of responses, please check this box:

 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

Racing Forum is maintained by Pi Yee Press