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one problem with your conclusion

Posted By: MT
Date: 9 May 03, 5:21 pm

In Response To: probability (HDouble.L.A.)

True the prob of 4 of a kind in 7 card stud is 0.001680672 or apporx 0.001681, however,

most games are not played out to their entirity, especially ones where players already have 3 of a kind(as such a player is likely to raise causing all others to fold) In addition, many hands are folded after only 3 cards have been observed, therein adding additional evidence that actual observations of 4 of a kind should be less than the probability of such an outcome(given that the last four cards could be similar).

As such, using pure probability d/n account for such sample selection. Thus, the actual observation of 4 of a kind, I assert, is lower than the prob of such an outcome.

FYI: those statistically inclinded need to heed this advice and account for sample selection when discerning rival's actions.

my meds are finally workin ;)

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Messages In This Thread

party poker random number algorithm? -- HDouble.L.A. -- 8 May 03, 6:50 pm
make that 7-- quad 5s (nt) -- HDouble.L.A. -- 8 May 03, 6:55 pm
make it 14! I got 7 in the last 1/2 hour!!! (nt) -- GDouble.N.Y. -- 8 May 03, 7:02 pm
You have validated my argument, see my post below (nt) -- Hunch_Player -- 8 May 03, 7:12 pm
Mine too, what is positively correlated with good hands? Large pots...rakes (nt) -- MT -- 9 May 03, 1:35 pm
To answer you, buyers, participants, players, suckers -- Hunch_Player -- 9 May 03, 2:17 pm
now that's 8-!!definitely something wrong here (nt) -- HDouble.L.A. -- 8 May 03, 7:12 pm
probability -- HDouble.L.A. -- 8 May 03, 7:24 pm
in about 11 hours i have seen maybe 2 or 3 (nt) -- Sean Manning -- 9 May 03, 6:25 am
one problem with your conclusion -- MT -- 9 May 03, 5:21 pm
Glad your meds kicked in, HDoubleLA/JJ/MT/doc (nt) -- GDouble.N.Y. -- 9 May 03, 6:06 pm

 

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