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agree ... but with a twist

Posted By: ricky
Date: 7 May 02, 10:48 pm

In Response To: Odds on War Emblem (Mike Keno)

I would not argue with your odds. That's what I had guessed would be the closing odds anyway...but my whole point is that I want to bet against it...bet against the public gaga over a Derby winner, especially in the Preakness. I asked if there was anyway to do that...the answer was no. But this is clearly a way to bet against the public favorite. At -1200, I gotta win 92.3% to breakeven. if it goes 4-1 and then 1-1 as you mentioned, 10% - I am assuming fair value is 15% x 40% = 6%...thus I am theoreitcally winning 1.7%. Clearly not a bet for everyone...especially those who have little capital....or who can't stand a big loss to win a small amount, but the amount doesn't matter to me (of course, I limit my risk, i'm not betting 120,000 to win 10,000, not that they'd take that large of a bet anyways, but you get the drift)...all I care is the 1.7% edge. So, I put down what I am comfortable in losing if hell breaks lose...but I've already added in 1.7% to my theoretical win.

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Messages In This Thread

Will War Emblem win TC? No -1200 -- ricky -- 7 May 02, 10:20 am
In your odds comparison . . . -- VM -- 7 May 02, 11:25 am
huh? -- joefu -- 7 May 02, 1:33 pm
lol - i'll assume its a joke or misunderstanding (nt) -- ricky -- 7 May 02, 10:42 pm
Good Assumption! (nt) -- VM -- 8 May 02, 7:08 am
Odds on War Emblem -- Mike Keno -- 7 May 02, 12:27 pm
agree ... but with a twist -- ricky -- 7 May 02, 10:48 pm
Also, I think calculation of fair value -- Colin Caster -- 9 May 02, 12:27 pm
but the odds for Race 3 only matters if the horse wins Race 2 -- ricky -- 9 May 02, 9:04 pm
You're right -- sorry -- Colin Caster -- 9 May 02, 11:30 pm
Numbers need to come down to account for house vig, and square public -- Fezzik -- 14 May 02, 2:27 am
-1200 still too high -- Mike Keno -- 14 May 02, 5:06 am
Brainfade?:) -- StevieY -- 14 May 02, 9:26 am

 


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