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Interesting

Posted By: John May
Date: 1 May 02, 1:50 pm

In Response To: methodology (Math Boy)

Personally, I don't think this is a good way of estimating odds. The variation is just too great. Perhaps a better methodology is to look at the mean odds given at betbrain and then distribute out the vig. Perhaps you can not do this for this bet.

That is exactly what I usually do. You guessed right-correct score bets are unfortunately not listed by betbrain. Ideally I would have checked with a larger number of bookmakers but time is a crucial factor with betting exchanges-the best odds may only be posted for a matter of seconds.

If you were using team specific data I would probably make an arguement that there is not enough data for a precise estimate on that statistic.

True, however very few team match-ups, however aggressive, would justify odds of 14.5 (let alone the 18 I managed to hold out for).

I would doubt that soccor scores are distributed as Poisson, because teams drastically change their strategy depending on the relative score.

Yes, Jacques Black produces data supporting the argument that goals are normally distributed throughout each half in "Spread Betting To Win". However, the second half tends to produce slightly more goals for the reason you state.

Incidentally, after getting ridiculous odds of 18 on the 0-0 draw from one badly misinformed punter I hedged at an average of 13 and made a significant profit even though the 0-0 scoreline did not actually materialize. I wonder how the traditional bookmakers are going to survive if I can get three times the average odds they offer on propositions like this with P2P betting.

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Messages In This Thread

Champions League:Leverkusen-Manchester United -- Doctor Remulac -- 29 Apr 02, 5:58 pm
Detected some value on the correct score bets here -- John May -- 30 Apr 02, 7:51 am
Good one.... -- Doctor Remulac -- 30 Apr 02, 10:52 am
Sadly no -- John May -- 30 Apr 02, 11:31 am
it is too bad.... -- Doctor Remulac -- 30 Apr 02, 12:22 pm
methodology -- Math Boy -- 30 Apr 02, 4:00 pm
Interesting -- John May -- 1 May 02, 1:50 pm
Further betbrain thought -- John May -- 1 May 02, 2:25 pm
the game was entertaining... -- Doctor Remulac -- 30 Apr 02, 4:13 pm

 


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