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methodology

Posted By: Math Boy
Date: 30 Apr 02, 4:00 pm

In Response To: Detected some value on the correct score bets here (John May)

You can add on 50% to these payoffs to get a fair estimate of the "true" fair odds on a 0-0 draw, which gives you roughly 10.0, indicating the bookies think a scoreline is less likely than normal between these two aggressive teams, though not by much. Ordinarily I'd check with a larger sample of bookmakers but the deviation is so glaring in this case I didn't bother.

Personally, I don't think this is a good way of estimating odds. The variation is just too great. Perhaps a better methodology is to look at the mean odds given at betbrain and then distribute out the vig. Perhaps you can not do this for this bet.

Your reasoning that all teams have 0-0 scores 8% of the time and that these are two aggresive teams seems sound to me. If you were using team specific data I would probably make an arguement that there is not enough data for a precise estimate on that statistic. I would doubt that soccor scores are distributed as Poisson, because teams drastically change their strategy depending on the relative score. Keep in mind that I am a yank who has few clues regarding soccer.

Math Boy

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Messages In This Thread

Champions League:Leverkusen-Manchester United -- Doctor Remulac -- 29 Apr 02, 5:58 pm
Detected some value on the correct score bets here -- John May -- 30 Apr 02, 7:51 am
Good one.... -- Doctor Remulac -- 30 Apr 02, 10:52 am
Sadly no -- John May -- 30 Apr 02, 11:31 am
it is too bad.... -- Doctor Remulac -- 30 Apr 02, 12:22 pm
methodology -- Math Boy -- 30 Apr 02, 4:00 pm
Interesting -- John May -- 1 May 02, 1:50 pm
Further betbrain thought -- John May -- 1 May 02, 2:25 pm
the game was entertaining... -- Doctor Remulac -- 30 Apr 02, 4:13 pm

 


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