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Detected some value on the correct score bets here

Posted By: John May
Date: 30 Apr 02, 7:51 am

In Response To: Champions League:Leverkusen-Manchester United (Doctor Remulac)

Ordinarily correct score bets are a sucker bet, with an overround of 50% or greater.
However, P2P betting exchanges like betfair.com seem to offer much better correct score odds. Someone has currently layed decimal odds of 14.5 (I think that is +1550 in American-style odds) at betfair on a 0-0 draw. Intuitively that sounds good because the average chance of a 0-0 draw is 8%.
However, for any particular two teams the probability of a draw may be slightly different-in particular Manchester United are associated with attacking play. So, I checked with the regular bookmakers at Paddypower and Betdirect. Paddypower offer 13-2 (7.5 in decimal odds) on 0-0 and betdirect offer a miserly 5-1 (6.0 in decimal odds). You can add on 50% to these payoffs to get a fair estimate of the "true" fair odds on a 0-0 draw, which gives you roughly 10.0, indicating the bookies think a scoreline is less likely than normal between these two aggressive teams, though not by much. Ordinarily I'd check with a larger sample of bookmakers but the deviation is so glaring in this case I didn't bother.

In the light of all this, obviously the betfair odds of 14.5 offer a positive expectation. I put down a tenner.

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Messages In This Thread

Champions League:Leverkusen-Manchester United -- Doctor Remulac -- 29 Apr 02, 5:58 pm
Detected some value on the correct score bets here -- John May -- 30 Apr 02, 7:51 am
Good one.... -- Doctor Remulac -- 30 Apr 02, 10:52 am
Sadly no -- John May -- 30 Apr 02, 11:31 am
it is too bad.... -- Doctor Remulac -- 30 Apr 02, 12:22 pm
methodology -- Math Boy -- 30 Apr 02, 4:00 pm
Interesting -- John May -- 1 May 02, 1:50 pm
Further betbrain thought -- John May -- 1 May 02, 2:25 pm
the game was entertaining... -- Doctor Remulac -- 30 Apr 02, 4:13 pm

 


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