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soccer vs hockey

Posted By: Math Boy
Date: 4 Jun 02, 7:59 am

In Response To: hockey totals (ricky)

wouldn't that apply to hockey totals too? if not, is the difference simply that the average hockey total is 4-6 goals, whereas soccer is 2-3 goals?

I think the behavior of the teams changes much more drastically in soccer than hockey. It is more difficult to nurse a 1 goal lead in hockey because there are few goals. In hockey, you can pull back and say that shots are Poisson distributed. Then you thin the distribution by only looking at shots that score. Since there probably 40 shots in a game, the behavior of shots is kind of what we would care about. And there are enough shots to smooth out the kinks more. My guess is the fit would be better.

I don't know how many shots are taken in soccer. I would doubt that 90% of all shots are blocked. If there are only something like 10-15 shots per game, everything may not fit as well. Keep in mind that I don't watch much soccer, so everything I am saying could be bogus.

Math Boy

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Messages In This Thread

UK Spread Betting and Poisson Distribution -- John Butterworth -- 3 Jun 02, 12:12 pm
Interesting question -- John May -- 3 Jun 02, 12:52 pm
Re: UK Spread Betting Poisson Distribution -- John Butterworth -- 4 Jun 02, 4:21 am
volatility -- ricky -- 4 Jun 02, 5:15 am
Re: Curious -- John Butterworth -- 4 Jun 02, 5:41 am
Some answers -- John May -- 4 Jun 02, 4:37 pm
You need to test whether total goals is distributed as a Poisson -- Math Boy -- 3 Jun 02, 3:37 pm
Underlying distribution -- John May -- 4 Jun 02, 4:25 am
Was this written by John May? -- Math Boy -- 4 Jun 02, 7:54 am
A guess -- Rusty Starfish -- 4 Jun 02, 8:03 am
hockey totals -- ricky -- 4 Jun 02, 5:17 am
soccer vs hockey -- Math Boy -- 4 Jun 02, 7:59 am

 


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