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Was this written by John May?

Posted By: Math Boy
Date: 4 Jun 02, 7:54 am

In Response To: Underlying distribution (John May)

You are signing John's name, but writing in the third person. Please don't do that.

It is Poisson within each actual half. Goals are slightly more likely in the second half due to several obvious reasons-player fatigue, tactical changes etc.

If it is Poisson within each half, then it is Poisson in both halves. Just add together the means. But I don't think that is true.

What relevance this has exactly to John's real interest in this matter is (how to identify profitable over/under goal spreads) I can't see offhand. I would have thought you could use Poisson with a little conservative fudging quite safely.

The original poster (you?) was talking about evaluating pros using the Poisson distribution. That is how it is relavent.

Math Boy

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Messages In This Thread

UK Spread Betting and Poisson Distribution -- John Butterworth -- 3 Jun 02, 12:12 pm
Interesting question -- John May -- 3 Jun 02, 12:52 pm
Re: UK Spread Betting Poisson Distribution -- John Butterworth -- 4 Jun 02, 4:21 am
volatility -- ricky -- 4 Jun 02, 5:15 am
Re: Curious -- John Butterworth -- 4 Jun 02, 5:41 am
Some answers -- John May -- 4 Jun 02, 4:37 pm
You need to test whether total goals is distributed as a Poisson -- Math Boy -- 3 Jun 02, 3:37 pm
Underlying distribution -- John May -- 4 Jun 02, 4:25 am
Was this written by John May? -- Math Boy -- 4 Jun 02, 7:54 am
A guess -- Rusty Starfish -- 4 Jun 02, 8:03 am
hockey totals -- ricky -- 4 Jun 02, 5:17 am
soccer vs hockey -- Math Boy -- 4 Jun 02, 7:59 am

 


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