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Underlying distribution

Posted By: John May
Date: 4 Jun 02, 4:25 am

In Response To: You need to test whether total goals is distributed as a Poisson (Math Boy)

John May didn't mention it in his post below, but he's told me there is some other kind of underlying distribution to soccer totals which is accepted.

It is Poisson within each actual half. Goals are slightly more likely in the second half due to several obvious reasons-player fatigue, tactical changes etc.
What relevance this has exactly to John's real interest in this matter is (how to identify profitable over/under goal spreads) I can't see offhand. I would have thought you could use Poisson with a little conservative fudging quite safely.

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Messages In This Thread

UK Spread Betting and Poisson Distribution -- John Butterworth -- 3 Jun 02, 12:12 pm
Interesting question -- John May -- 3 Jun 02, 12:52 pm
Re: UK Spread Betting Poisson Distribution -- John Butterworth -- 4 Jun 02, 4:21 am
volatility -- ricky -- 4 Jun 02, 5:15 am
Re: Curious -- John Butterworth -- 4 Jun 02, 5:41 am
Some answers -- John May -- 4 Jun 02, 4:37 pm
You need to test whether total goals is distributed as a Poisson -- Math Boy -- 3 Jun 02, 3:37 pm
Underlying distribution -- John May -- 4 Jun 02, 4:25 am
Was this written by John May? -- Math Boy -- 4 Jun 02, 7:54 am
A guess -- Rusty Starfish -- 4 Jun 02, 8:03 am
hockey totals -- ricky -- 4 Jun 02, 5:17 am
soccer vs hockey -- Math Boy -- 4 Jun 02, 7:59 am

 


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