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Re: UK Spread Betting Poisson Distribution

Posted By: John Butterworth
Date: 4 Jun 02, 4:21 am

In Response To: Interesting question (John May)

Thanks for the reply John. I will read the books you recommend. Could you tell me if UK Football bets like Total Goals, Match Supremacy, and Total Corners conform to Poisson distribution? Total Goals in football could be considered a rare event and they occur one at a time. Match Supremacy is how many goals a team will outscore the other, again, one at a time and a rare event. Total Corners, one at a time and a rare event. Mathsboy has stated that he does not think that they do conform to Poisson because of the nature of how teams play when a goal is scored, he mentions that is something he got from you.

If it is true that football does not conform to Poisson, because of the nature of how teams play when a goal is scored, then how can the number of Quarterback Sacks conform to Poisson? (Example on page 161 of Sharp Sports Betting) If a Quarterback is getting sacked then surely the team offence would have to adjust and play differently to avoid that situation? Finally is there a way to work out a betting advantage directly from the spread without having to check other fixed odds terms.

As I mentioned in my original post, I am experienced in trading the financial markets, I use spread betting to trade the Dow both long and short so I am used to volatility. I am now going to ask what might be a stupid question.

In financial trading I can use volatility and other historical price movements to my advantage. As an example, low volatility means expect high volatility and with high volatility expect low volatility. One way of doing this is to use Bollinger bands which are constructed using 2 x the Standard Deviation of an n day moving average of a closing price. By tracking the width of the bands over a period of time you can see periods of low and high volatility. This method not only helps with the timing but also exposes optimism and pessimism from the public. If a sports spread bet firm moves the spread dynamically before an event and even during the course of an event has anyone thought of charting the mid price of the spread and looking for optimism / pessimism or oversold / overbought conditions that you could use to your advantage?

Finally could you comment on using stop losses on sports spread bets? I suppose that they move the spread wider if you opt for this.

Thanks again.

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Messages In This Thread

UK Spread Betting and Poisson Distribution -- John Butterworth -- 3 Jun 02, 12:12 pm
Interesting question -- John May -- 3 Jun 02, 12:52 pm
Re: UK Spread Betting Poisson Distribution -- John Butterworth -- 4 Jun 02, 4:21 am
volatility -- ricky -- 4 Jun 02, 5:15 am
Re: Curious -- John Butterworth -- 4 Jun 02, 5:41 am
Some answers -- John May -- 4 Jun 02, 4:37 pm
You need to test whether total goals is distributed as a Poisson -- Math Boy -- 3 Jun 02, 3:37 pm
Underlying distribution -- John May -- 4 Jun 02, 4:25 am
Was this written by John May? -- Math Boy -- 4 Jun 02, 7:54 am
A guess -- Rusty Starfish -- 4 Jun 02, 8:03 am
hockey totals -- ricky -- 4 Jun 02, 5:17 am
soccer vs hockey -- Math Boy -- 4 Jun 02, 7:59 am

 


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