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UK Spread Betting and Poisson Distribution

Posted By: John Butterworth
Date: 3 Jun 02, 12:12 pm

I have just purchased the Sharp Sports Betting Book. I found the book a very interesting read and I have some questions that you may be able to help me with.

First some important information.
I am British and live in the UK.
I am new to Sports Betting, but I am used to taking on risk, I actively trade the financial markets using Spread Betting.

I am interested in using Poisson distribution to calculate a betting advantage on certain Football(Soccer) bets using UK Spread betting.

Example from UK Premiership

Liverpool V Newcastle United: Total Goals 2.6 – 2.9

If you think there will be more than 2.9 Goals you would buy Goals at 2.9. If you think there will be less than 2.6 Goals you would sell Goals at 2.6

For this example let’s stake $100 per goal.

The final score is 4-3 for a total of 7 Goals

If you had bought at 2.9 then you would have won (7-2.9)=4.1x $100 = 410
If you had sold at 2.6 then you would have lost (2.6-7)=-4.4 x $100 = - 440

If the final score had been 0-0 for a total of 0 Goals

Then if you had bought at 2.9 you would have lost (0-2.9)=-2.9 x $100 = -290
If you had sold at 2.6 you would have won (2.6-0)=2.6 x$100 = 260.

It is also possible to close the bet early and bet in running. This is a bit like buy and selling on the stock market. If you buy to open you sell to close. (Like going long) . If you sell to open you buy to close. (Like going short).

My problem is how do I know if this is a good bet?

If the terms of the bet were Liverpool v Newcastle Total Goals
2.9 and over Evens
2.6 and under -120 then I could work it out.

How can I work out player advantage from a spread of 2.6 – 2.9?

Also because of the spread you can never have a push bet or breakeven bet unless the buy or sell was a whole number and they never are. Can anyone confirm this to be correct?

I would be very grateful if anyone can answer this. Or put me in contact with someone who can.

Thanks

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Messages In This Thread

UK Spread Betting and Poisson Distribution -- John Butterworth -- 3 Jun 02, 12:12 pm
Interesting question -- John May -- 3 Jun 02, 12:52 pm
Re: UK Spread Betting Poisson Distribution -- John Butterworth -- 4 Jun 02, 4:21 am
volatility -- ricky -- 4 Jun 02, 5:15 am
Re: Curious -- John Butterworth -- 4 Jun 02, 5:41 am
Some answers -- John May -- 4 Jun 02, 4:37 pm
You need to test whether total goals is distributed as a Poisson -- Math Boy -- 3 Jun 02, 3:37 pm
Underlying distribution -- John May -- 4 Jun 02, 4:25 am
Was this written by John May? -- Math Boy -- 4 Jun 02, 7:54 am
A guess -- Rusty Starfish -- 4 Jun 02, 8:03 am
hockey totals -- ricky -- 4 Jun 02, 5:17 am
soccer vs hockey -- Math Boy -- 4 Jun 02, 7:59 am

 


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