[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

Other Sports

Double-your-money promo at WG PlayersOnly & affiliates

Posted By: James
Date: 1 Jun 02, 8:15 am

As I understand the promotion, you make a bet on a specified World Cup game, and your winnings will be doubled if you predict the exact final score.

While this promotion isn't worth much on football or basketball games, there is a much smaller number of plausible soccer scores.

E.g. the current promotional game is England-Sweden, with the following odds:

England 2.00
Tie 3.15
Sweden 3.40

These odds adds up to a 111% line (90% return).

Olympic odds are 2.0, 3.0, 3.6 (also a 111% line), total u2.5 -143

Some reasonable plays here might be:
England +100, score 1-0 (or maybe 2-0, 2-1)
Tie +215, score 0-0 (or maybe 1-1)
Sweden +240, score 1-0 (or maybe 2-0, 2-1)

Assuming Olympic odds are "correct" except for 111% adjustment, the "true line" probabilities are:

England 45%
Tie 30%
Sweden 25%

EV of $100 England wager is $90 without promotion.
If England 1-0 occurs more than 10% (out of 45% assumed England wins), then this wager is +EV.

EV of $100 Tie wager is $94.50 without promotion.
If 0-0 Tie occurs more than 2.6% (out of 30% assumed ties) then this wager is +EV. (Would be 4.7% if I based this on WG lines.)

EV of $100 Sweden wager is $85 without promotion.
If Sweden 1-0 occurs more than 6.3% (of 25% assumed Sweden wins) then this wager is +EV.

Comments?

Password:

Messages In This Thread

Double-your-money promo at WG PlayersOnly & affiliates -- James -- 1 Jun 02, 8:15 am
This is a World Cup promotion. (nt) -- James -- 1 Jun 02, 9:37 am
Go for the 0-0 -- John May -- 2 Jun 02, 1:13 am
soccer stats -- SoccerMan -- 2 Jun 02, 2:35 am
I'm sure there are...somewhere -- John May -- 2 Jun 02, 5:19 am
there's one for uk teams,but pricey -- Spongebob Squarepants -- 2 Jun 02, 7:03 pm
Looks interesting -- John May -- 3 Jun 02, 12:07 am
Might be worth it... -- Spongebob Squarepants -- 3 Jun 02, 8:01 am
100% cashback WC deals -- James -- 2 Jun 02, 5:11 am

 


Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Picks Post?
Message:

If you'd like to include a link to another page with your message,
please provide both the URL address and the title of the page:

Optional Link URL:
Optional Link Title:

If you'd like to have the option of deleting your post later,
please provide a password (CASE SENSITIVE!):

Password:

If you'd like e-mail notification of responses, please check this box:

 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

Other Sports is maintained by Pi Yee Press