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Your advice sought

Posted By: John May
Date: 27 May 02, 4:12 am

In Response To: ecuador (zorba)

As a former sportsbook oddsmaker I can tell you that wether you get ecuador or any similar team at +150 or +900 is insignifacant. Oddsmakers know that chances of a team like Ecuador ultimately WINNING the world cup are next to zero, so they allow themselves to play with the numbers hoping to get action on such props. If you feel like the same sportsbook offers a very nice payoff on Ecuador to advance to the second round, then that's a much more realistic prop worth taking a chance on.

That is interesting. Whether the chances of Ecuador winning the title are insignificant or not, it seems to me that the odds have to be correlated with the chances of Ecuador actually winning the group or individual matches, or an arbitrage opportunity arises. Obviously the prospect of Ecuador winning any individual match is not too remote. I don't recall any bookmaker ever offering more than 15-1 against any side in a single football match.

In this case, betfair is a betting exchange, not a bookmaker. It is a p2p concept whereby individuals make bets with each other and the website takes a commission on all bets.
In this case it seems to me by backing Ecuador at (now!) 480-1, and then backing the teams they face in each individual match at the best available odds with the bookmakers, I can be certain of a profit. Would you agree?

I ask because my other theory, that Ecuador's odds would eventually fall back in line with those of the bookmakers at betfair and I would be able to lay off the bet, hasn't materialized (yet), and I have opened up quite a liability I didn't want.

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Messages In This Thread

World Cup -- D -- 20 May 02, 12:18 pm
world cup -- zorba -- 24 May 02, 10:03 pm
Thanks Zorba! (nt) -- D -- 24 May 02, 10:41 pm
As an Englishman... -- John May -- 25 May 02, 12:50 pm
ecuador -- zorba -- 25 May 02, 6:20 pm
Your advice sought -- John May -- 27 May 02, 4:12 am
world cup -- zorba -- 27 May 02, 3:00 pm
Thanks -- John May -- 28 May 02, 3:37 am
First pick -- roadkill -- 25 May 02, 4:56 pm
Help Me Out With This -- urban33 -- 28 May 02, 8:30 am
You're not missing anything -- D -- 28 May 02, 9:01 am
Maybe i'm missing something.. -- bill the cop -- 29 May 02, 12:30 pm
No- -- D -- 29 May 02, 12:35 pm
sorry.. -- bill the cop -- 29 May 02, 2:14 pm
Correct -- roadkill -- 29 May 02, 12:45 pm
More picks..... -- roadkill -- 30 May 02, 10:37 pm
world cup -- DOXARAS-4- -- 26 May 02, 4:26 pm

 


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