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Also, I think calculation of fair value

Posted By: Colin Caster
Date: 9 May 02, 12:27 pm

In Response To: agree ... but with a twist (ricky)

would involve multiplying p(win race 2) by p(win race 3) based on *today's* probability estimates for race 3 rather than the win-contingent probability estimates for race 3.

So rather than

"15% x 40% = 6%...thus I am theoreitcally winning 1.7%."

you would have 15% X 15% = 2.25%. Lots of variance, but EV of $1.06 on the dollar -- a *terrific* bet, IMO.

CC

Messages In This Thread

Will War Emblem win TC? No -1200 -- ricky -- 7 May 02, 10:20 am

In your odds comparison . . . -- VM -- 7 May 02, 11:25 am

huh? -- joefu -- 7 May 02, 1:33 pm

lol - i'll assume its a joke or misunderstanding (nt) -- ricky -- 7 May 02, 10:42 pm

Good Assumption! (nt) -- VM -- 8 May 02, 7:08 am

Odds on War Emblem -- Mike Keno -- 7 May 02, 12:27 pm

agree ... but with a twist -- ricky -- 7 May 02, 10:48 pm

Also, I think calculation of fair value -- Colin Caster -- 9 May 02, 12:27 pm

but the odds for Race 3 only matters if the horse wins Race 2 -- ricky -- 9 May 02, 9:04 pm

You're right -- sorry -- Colin Caster -- 9 May 02, 11:30 pm

Numbers need to come down to account for house vig, and square public -- Fezzik -- 14 May 02, 2:27 am

-1200 still too high -- Mike Keno -- 14 May 02, 5:06 am

Brainfade?:) -- StevieY -- 14 May 02, 9:26 am

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