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11/7

Posted By: MarkH
Date: 6 Nov 03, 9:30 pm

In Response To: Wk: 11/3-11/9 (19-11-6, +1.35u) (nt) (MarkH)

3 plays today based upon a discrepancy of >10% in probs implied by my poisson lines and the widely available line (my line in brackets). Line for PIT at FLA not yet up. Will add if line diff implies a play (my line for that game = FLA-113, o4.5+100):

ATL/CBJ o5-125 (-202)
MIN/CAL u4.5+125 (-190)
CBJ-130 v ATL (-234)

The MIN/CAL u4.5+125 play looks like a huge mispricing, probably because the linemaker does not like going lower than 4.5 on a total.

That's all folkses

MarkH

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Messages In This Thread

Wk: 11/3-11/9 (19-11-6, +1.35u) (nt) -- MarkH -- 2 Nov 03, 9:40 pm
11/3 - No plays -- MarkH -- 2 Nov 03, 9:43 pm
11/4 -- MarkH -- 4 Nov 03, 7:03 am
Res: 1-1-0, -0.1u -- MarkH -- 4 Nov 03, 10:08 pm
11/5 -- MarkH -- 5 Nov 03, 3:43 am
Res: 2-1-0, +1u -- MarkH -- 5 Nov 03, 9:39 pm
11/6 - See standalone post - Sorry (nt) -- MarkH -- 6 Nov 03, 9:19 pm
Res 1-0-0, +1u -- MarkH -- 6 Nov 03, 9:20 pm
11/7 -- MarkH -- 6 Nov 03, 9:30 pm
Res: 2-1-0, +0.95u -- MarkH -- 8 Nov 03, 3:08 am
I think you were 3-0 -- Lucky Louise -- 8 Nov 03, 5:23 am
You're right - Thanks: 3-0-0, +3.25u (nt) -- MarkH -- 8 Nov 03, 6:27 am
11/8 -- MarkH -- 8 Nov 03, 6:50 am
Res: 2-1-1, +1.1u -- MarkH -- 9 Nov 03, 5:11 am
11/9 -- MarkH -- 9 Nov 03, 7:00 am
Res: 2-0-0, +2u (nt) -- MarkH -- 10 Nov 03, 3:17 am

 


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