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Back testing

Posted By: MarkH
Date: 9 Oct 03, 9:33 am

In Response To: model discussion (Math Boy)

I have tried this method with other sports, ie try to come up with a v solid statistical line and then play at the fringes (ie where there is a big discrepancy) eg NFL and NBA. Seems to work there (ie after you cross a certain threshold ie in those sports x points, the bigger the variance from the posted line the more likely the model is to generate a +ve ev play.) Here I only have last year's data. So I cannot yet back test meaningfully. I do not have time to cap so will just put out (what I think is) a pretty rigorously calculated statistical line, and see whether it gives any value at the fringes. I have no expectations - really just a live experiment. As you have suggested, I suppose my approach carries with it an assumption that to the extent that a big difference reflects some qualitative adjustment, such an adjustment will generally involve an overcompensation by the linemaker. I understand where you are coming from, but to try to approach it your way, I would actually need to analyse games, which I do not have time to do.

MarkH

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Messages In This Thread

Plays 10/8 to 12/10 (0-0-0, 0u) (nt) -- MarkH -- 8 Oct 03, 6:52 am
Plays 10/8 -- MarkH -- 8 Oct 03, 7:12 am
Result:1-0-1, +1u -- MarkH -- 9 Oct 03, 5:52 am
model discussion -- Math Boy -- 9 Oct 03, 7:39 am
Back testing -- MarkH -- 9 Oct 03, 9:33 am
PS Data -- MarkH -- 9 Oct 03, 9:38 am
watch covers.com ive found errors in their lines -- Joe Nathan -- 9 Oct 03, 8:53 pm
Lines 10/12 -- MarkH -- 12 Oct 03, 7:16 am
Plays 10/9 -- MarkH -- 9 Oct 03, 6:28 am
Result:3-1-0,+2u -- MarkH -- 12 Oct 03, 6:57 am
10/10 & 11 - No plays - Holidays (nt) -- MarkH -- 12 Oct 03, 6:58 am
No plays 10/12 -- MarkH -- 12 Oct 03, 7:18 am
Res for Wk to 10/12: 4-1-1, +3u (nt) -- MarkH -- 12 Oct 03, 7:19 am

 


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